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Responses to Temperature Shocks: Labor Markets and Migration Decisions in El Salvador

Author

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  • Ibáñez, Ana María
  • Quigua, Juliana
  • Romero, Jimena
  • Velásquez, Andrea

Abstract

By 2017, one-quarter of people born in El Salvador were estimated to live in the U.S. We show that extreme temperatures negatively impact agricultural production and increase international migration. Corn producers respond by reducing demand for agricultural workers and substituting them with household labor. Unlike other contexts, there is no evidence of reallocation to the non-agricultural sector. This, combined with a strong history of migration to the U.S., explains the increase in international migration. Our findings underscore how international migration serves as a response to extreme temperatures when local labor markets fail to absorb displaced workers and if financially feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibáñez, Ana María & Quigua, Juliana & Romero, Jimena & Velásquez, Andrea, 2022. "Responses to Temperature Shocks: Labor Markets and Migration Decisions in El Salvador," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12201, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:12201
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004237
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Busso, Matias & Chauvin, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Long-term effects of weather-induced migration on urban labor and housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Arteaga, Julian & De Roux, Nicolás & Gafaro, Margarita & Ibanez, Ana Maria & Pellegrina, Heitor, 2023. "Temperature Shocks and Land Fragmentation: Evidence from Transaction and Property Registry Data," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335955, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2025. "Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras," IFPRI working papers 178954, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Camilo Bohorquez-Penuela & Margarita Gáfaro & Karelys Guzmán-Finol & Alex Perez, 2025. "Climate Risk and Access to Credit: Evidence from Colombian Potato Growers," Borradores de Economia 1307, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Ambrosius, Christian & Quigua, Juliana & Velasquez, Andrea, 2025. "Beyond the Border: Labor Market Effects of U.S. Immigration Enforcement Policies in El Salvador," IZA Discussion Papers 18135, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Julián Arteaga & Nicolás de Roux & Margarita Gáfaro & Ana Mar√≠a Ib√°√±ez & Heitor Pellegrina, 2025. "Farm Size Distribution, Weather Shocks, and Agricultural Productivity," Documentos CEDE 21308, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo & Bracco, Jessica & Ham Gonzalez, Andres & Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo, 2025. "Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?," IZA Discussion Papers 18028, IZA Network @ LISER.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J43 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Agricultural Labor Markets

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