IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1517.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Transboundary Effects of Climate Change and Global Adaptation: The Case of The Euphrates-Tigris Water Basin in Turkey and Iraq

Author

Listed:
  • Eleftherios Giovanis

    (Aydin Adnan Menderes University)

  • Oznur Ozdamar

    (Izmir Bakircay University)

Abstract

Drought has erupted across the Middle-East, as a result of climate change and global warming, leading to a considerable reduction in rainfall and snowfall, as well as a substantial drop in water resources. Climate change is, without a doubt, one of Iraq’s most pressing issues, with considerable negative consequences for the environment, water resources, and the economy, particularly in the agricultural sector. With a growing global population and other factors, the effects of climate change, water ownership and distribution will certainly become more critical. The EuphratesTigris water basin is a major source of water supply for Turkey and Iraq, where the latter is a downstream riparian country and the former is an upstream country. Turkey is most vulnerable to climate change as the country will experience a substantial decline in the annual surface runoff. However, Turkey will suffer less than Iraq, which as a downstream country, relies primarily on the water released by Turkey as the upstream country. The empirical analysis relies on data from the Iraqi Household Socio-Economic Survey (IHSES) conducted in 2012 and the 2017 Rapid Welfare Monitoring Survey. We apply simultaneous unrelated regressions equations (SURE) with Probit models. We further extend the analysis by incorporating an instrument variables (IV) approach considering the population of the nearest Turkish city to where the dam is located, the water capacity, and the distance between this dam and the respondent’s governorate in Iraq. Similarly, we construct other two instruments considering the distance between the dams in Iraq and in Syria and the nearest governorate along with the dams’ water capacity and the population of the governorate in Iraq. The findings show a significant impact of climate change-related shocks on income, assets, food production and stock, and the overall economic situation of households in Iraq.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2021. "The Transboundary Effects of Climate Change and Global Adaptation: The Case of The Euphrates-Tigris Water Basin in Turkey and Iraq," Working Papers 1517, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Dec 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1517
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://erf.org.eg/publications/the-transboundary-effects-of-climate-change-and-global-adaptation-the-case-of-the-euphrates-tigris-water-basin-in-turkey-and-iraq/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bit.ly/3mzIdRx
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael S. Rendall & Susan W. Parker, 2014. "Two Decades of Negative Educational Selectivity of Mexican Migrants to the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 421-446, September.
    2. GuoLiang Wei & ZhiFeng Yang & BaoShan Cui & Bing Li & He Chen & JunHong Bai & ShiKui Dong, 2009. "Impact of Dam Construction on Water Quality and Water Self-Purification Capacity of the Lancang River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(9), pages 1763-1780, July.
    3. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2004. "Well-being over time in Britain and the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1359-1386, July.
    4. Roy Brouwer & Sonia Akter & Luke Brander & Enamul Haque, 2007. "Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in Bangladesh," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 313-326, April.
    5. Angus Deaton, 2008. "Income, Health, and Well-Being around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 53-72, Spring.
    6. Alesina, Alberto & Di Tella, Rafael & MacCulloch, Robert, 2004. "Inequality and happiness: are Europeans and Americans different?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 2009-2042, August.
    7. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    8. van Wissen, Leo J. & Golob, Thomas F., 1990. "Simultaneous Equation Systems Involving Binary Choice Variables," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5t28k04n, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    10. Jianguo Liu & Gretchen C. Daily & Paul R. Ehrlich & Gary W. Luck, 2003. "Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6922), pages 530-533, January.
    11. Michael Lokshin & Zurab Sajaia, 2004. "Maximum likelihood estimation of endogenous switching regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 4(3), pages 282-289, September.
    12. van Wissen, Leo J., 1990. "Simultaneous Equation Systems Involving Binary Choice Variables," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt339562gx, University of California Transportation Center.
    13. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261.
    14. Oznur Ozdamar & Eleftherios Giovanis, 2017. "The Causal Effects of Income Support and Housing Benefits on Mental Well-Being: An Application of a Bayesian Network," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 398-424, July.
    15. Eleftherios Giovanis, 2019. "Worthy to lose some money for better air quality: applications of Bayesian networks on the causal effect of income and air pollution on life satisfaction in Switzerland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1579-1611, November.
    16. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    17. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261, February.
    18. Omiti, John M. & Otieno, David Jakinda & Nyanamba, Timothy O. & McCullough, Ellen B., 2009. "Factors influencing the intensity of market participation by smallholder farmers: A case study of rural and peri-urban areas of Kenya," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(01), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    20. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    21. David Roodman, 2011. "Fitting fully observed recursive mixed-process models with cmp," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 11(2), pages 159-206, June.
    22. Karolina Pawlak & Małgorzata Kołodziejczak, 2020. "The Role of Agriculture in Ensuring Food Security in Developing Countries: Considerations in the Context of the Problem of Sustainable Food Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, July.
    23. Aysegül Kibaroglu, 2019. "State-of-the-art review of transboundary water governance in the Euphrates–Tigris river basin," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 4-29, January.
    24. Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2023. "Climate change and spatial agricultural development in Turkey," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1699-1720, August.
    25. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    26. Bethuel Sibongiseni Ngcamu, 2023. "Climate change effects on vulnerable populations in the Global South: a systematic review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 977-991, September.
    27. Brian Chi-ang Lin & Siqi Zheng & Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2016. "Structural Equation Modelling And The Causal Effect Of Permanent Income On Life Satisfaction: The Case Of Air Pollution Valuation In Switzerland," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 430-459, July.
    28. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    29. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    30. Barbier, Edward B., 2010. "Poverty, development, and environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 635-660, December.
    31. Thornton, P.K. & van de Steeg, J. & Notenbaert, A. & Herrero, M., 2009. "The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 113-127, July.
    32. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    33. Mark Zeitoun & Naho Mirumachi, 2008. "Transboundary water interaction I: reconsidering conflict and cooperation," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 297-316, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azher Ibrahim Al-Taei & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Ali Darvishi Boloorani, 2023. "Land Use/Land Cover Change Analysis Using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengzheng Li & Zheng Pan, 2021. "How do extremely high temperatures affect labor market performance? Evidence from rural China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2265-2291, October.
    2. Kaixing Huang & Qianqian Hong, 2024. "The impact of global warming on obesity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-32, September.
    3. Huang, Kaixing & Zhao, Hong & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Findlay, Christopher, 2020. "The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Jesús Arellano-González & Miriam Juárez-Torres, 2025. "Temperature and quarterly economic activity: panel data evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2025-02, Banco de México.
    5. Cui, Xiaomeng & Gafarov, Bulat & Ghanem, Dalia & Kuffner, Todd, 2024. "On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    6. Bruno, Ellen & Hadachek, Jeffrey & Hagerty, Nick & Jessoe, Katrina K., 2022. "Unintended costs of climate change adaption: Agricultural wells and access to drinking water," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322241, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Lé Mathias, 2022. "The adaptation of economies to climate change: lessons from the economic research [L’adaptation des économies au changement climatique : les enseignements tirés de la recherche économique]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 239.
    8. Hsing-Hsiang Huang & Michael R. Moore, 2018. "Farming under Weather Risk: Adaptation, Moral Hazard, and Selection on Moral Hazard," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 77-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Federica Alfani & Vasco Molini & Giacomo Pallante & Alessandro PalmaGran, 2024. "Job displacement and reallocation failure. Evidence from climate shocks in Morocco," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 51(1), pages 1-31.
    10. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    11. Chen, Zhenzhu & Li, Li & Tang, Yao, 2024. "Weather, credit, and economic fluctuations: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 406-422.
    12. Ding, Yugang & Xu, Jiangmin, 2023. "Global vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate risk: Evidence from satellite data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 669-687.
    13. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    14. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena, 2021. "Droughts and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers halshs-03420657, HAL.
    15. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Stephane Hallegatte & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2024. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1873-1905, December.
    16. Lyu, Zhuoyang & Yu, Li & Liu, Chen & Ma, Tiemeng, 2024. "When temperatures matter: Extreme heat and labor share," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Xie, Victoria Wenxin, 2024. "Labor market adjustment to extreme heat shocks: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 266-283.
    18. Jaqueline Oliveira & Bruno Palialol & Paula Pereda, 2021. "Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    19. Feriga, Moustafa & Lozano Gracia, Nancy & Serneels, Pieter, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work Lessons for Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 16914, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Bahadır Dursun & Resul Cesur, 2016. "Transforming lives: the impact of compulsory schooling on hope and happiness," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 911-956, July.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.