IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v234y2025ics016726812500109x.html

Extreme high temperatures and adaptation by social dynamics: Theory and evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Jiaowei
  • Shi, Xiangyu
  • Wang, Chang
  • Zhang, Xin

Abstract

Using a novel city-level high-frequency panel dataset of social and public events in Chinese cities, we document that extreme high temperatures significantly reshape social dynamics. Extreme high temperatures increase social cooperation, and the effects are more pronounced when labor productivity is lower and environmental awareness is higher. Our estimates, combined with a quantitative model, indicate that humanity adapts to climate change in part by reshaping social dynamics. Adaptation offsets nearly 10% of the negative economic impacts of extreme high temperatures. Our quantitative analysis suggests that directly subsidizing cooperation is the most effective strategy for mitigating the adverse effects of extreme high temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Jiaowei & Shi, Xiangyu & Wang, Chang & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Extreme high temperatures and adaptation by social dynamics: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:234:y:2025:i:c:s016726812500109x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106989
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016726812500109X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106989?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marchand, André & Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten & Flemming, Jan, 2021. "Social media resources and capabilities as strategic determinants of social media performance," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 549-571.
    2. Song, Yalin & Wang, Chang, 2024. "Pricing effects of extreme high temperature: Evidence from municipal corporate bonds in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Harun Alp & Nicholas Bloom & William Kerr, 2018. "Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3450-3491, November.
    4. Zhang, Peng & Deschenes, Olivier & Meng, Kyle & Zhang, Junjie, 2018. "Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 101-124, October.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    7. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    8. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    9. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2019. "Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Davide Cantoni & David Y Yang & Noam Yuchtman & Y Jane Zhang, 2019. "Protests as Strategic Games: Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong's Antiauthoritarian Movement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 1021-1077.
    11. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew E. Kahn, 2016. "Industrial Productivity in a Hotter World: The Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Firm Investment in Air Conditioning," NBER Working Papers 22962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    13. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    14. Leonardo Bursztyn & Davide Cantoni & David Y. Yang & Noam Yuchtman & Y. Jane Zhang, 2021. "Persistent Political Engagement: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Protest Movements," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 233-250, June.
    15. Xin Zhang & Xi Chen & Xiaobo Zhang, 2024. "Temperature and Low-Stakes Cognitive Performance," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96.
    16. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    17. Garg, Teevrat & Gibson, Matthew & Sun, Fanglin, 2020. "Extreme temperatures and time use in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 309-324.
    18. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    19. Chen, Yanran & Sun, Ruochen & Chen, Xi & Qin, Xuezheng, 2023. "Does extreme temperature exposure take a toll on mental health? Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 486-510, October.
    20. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Song, Yingquan & Tang, Qu & Zhang, Peng, 2020. "Temperature and high-stakes cognitive performance: Evidence from the national college entrance examination in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    21. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    22. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261.
    23. Panle Jia Barwick & Shanjun Li & Liguo Lin & Eric Yongchen Zou, 2024. "From Fog to Smog: The Value of Pollution Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1338-1381, May.
    24. Chen, Xiaoguang & Yang, Lu, 2019. "Temperature and industrial output: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 257-274.
    25. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    26. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    27. Sophia J. Wallace & Chris Zepeda‐Millán & Michael Jones‐Correa, 2014. "Spatial and Temporal Proximity: Examining the Effects of Protests on Political Attitudes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 433-448, April.
    28. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    29. Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Do Television and Radio Destroy Social Capital? Evidence from Indonesian Villages," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-33, October.
    30. repec:ehl:lserod:100316 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Chen, Shuai & Gong, Binlei, 2021. "Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    32. Barrett, Philip & Appendino, Maximiliano & Nguyen, Kate & de Leon Miranda, Jorge, 2022. "Measuring social unrest using media reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    33. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    34. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    35. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    36. Agarwal, Sumit & Qin, Yu & Shi, Luwen & Wei, Guoxu & Zhu, Hongjia, 2021. "Impact of temperature on morbidity: New evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    37. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 33-52, Fall.
    38. Jiafeng Chen & Jonathan Roth, 2024. "Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 891-936.
    39. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261, February.
    40. Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing & Deborah Carr, 2024. "Global projections of heat exposure of older adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    41. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    42. Huang, Yi & Li, Yanjun, 2023. "Labor activism over searing heat," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    43. Yu, Xiumei & Lei, Xiaoyan & Wang, Min, 2019. "Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 195-212.
    44. Yue Hua & Yun Qiu & Xiaoqing Tan, 2023. "The effects of temperature on mental health: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1293-1332, July.
    45. Li, Jianglong & Meng, Guanfei, 2023. "Pollution exposure and social conflicts: Evidence from China's daily data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhi Zhang & Yuan Hong & Ziyao Yang & Liming Chen & Yanhong Feng, 2025. "Navigating Uncertainty: How Climate Policy Uncertainty Drives Firms’ Green Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Shi, Xiangyu & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Extreme high temperatures, firm dynamics and heterogeneity, and aggregate productivity: The case of Chinese manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Xiangyu & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Extreme high temperatures, firm dynamics and heterogeneity, and aggregate productivity: The case of Chinese manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Lyu, Zhuoyang & Yu, Li & Liu, Chen & Ma, Tiemeng, 2024. "When temperatures matter: Extreme heat and labor share," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Li, Haoyang & Chen, Yifeng & Ma, Mingming, 2024. "Temperature and life satisfaction: Evidence from Chinese older adults," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Yan Chen & Xiaohong Chen & Hongshan Ai & Xiaoqing Tan, 2022. "Temperature and Migration Intention: Evidence from the Unified National Graduate Entrance Examination in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    7. Jaqueline Oliveira & Bruno Palialol & Paula Pereda, 2021. "Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Moustafa Feriga & Nancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 40(1), pages 104-146.
    9. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Stephane Hallegatte & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2024. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1873-1905, December.
    10. Valenti, Giulia & Vona, Francesco, 2024. "Hot Wages: How Do Heat Waves Change the Earnings Distribution?," FEEM Working Papers 348848, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    11. Bui, Thanh-Huong & Bui, Ha-Phuong & Pham, Thi Mai-Anh, 2024. "Effects of temperature on job insecurity: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 264-276.
    12. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Xin, Guangyi & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Warmer temperatures and energy poverty: Evidence from Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Belloc, Ignacio & Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto, 2025. "Extreme temperatures: Gender differences in well-being," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Moustafa Feriga & Nancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 40(1), pages 104-146.
    15. Zhengtao Li & Bin Hu, 2025. "Temperature Effects on People’s Subjective Well-Being and Their Subjective Adaptation: Empirical Evidence from China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 1081-1112, April.
    16. Long, Xianling & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2025. "From heat to high-tech: How innovation responds to climate change," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    17. Xie, Victoria Wenxin, 2024. "Labor market adjustment to extreme heat shocks: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 266-283.
    18. Qingen Gai & Chengzheng Li & Peng Zhang, 2025. "How does temperature affect rural income: Channels and implication of adaptation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 92(2), pages 272-312, October.
    19. Hao, Xinya & Huang, Yongying & Zhang, Lin, 2025. "High temperature, power rationing, and firm performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    20. Tang, Yuwei & He, Zhenyu, 2024. "Extreme heat and firms' robot adoption: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:234:y:2025:i:c:s016726812500109x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.