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Measuring social unrest using media reports

Author

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  • Barrett, Philip
  • Appendino, Maximiliano
  • Nguyen, Kate
  • de Leon Miranda, Jorge

Abstract

We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports, covering 130 countries monthly starting in 1986. Spikes in the index identify major events, which match event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We assess our index against others and show it performs as well as the next best alternative but with superior coverage. Social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate. We investigate economic performance around unrest events, showing that (1) macroeconomic performance is not robustly correlated with subsequent unrest and (2) after unrest events, positive output surprises are smaller but negative ones unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrett, Philip & Appendino, Maximiliano & Nguyen, Kate & de Leon Miranda, Jorge, 2022. "Measuring social unrest using media reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0304387822000803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102924
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    Cited by:

    1. Shangshang Li, 2024. "What Hinders Structural Reforms?," Working Papers 202404, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    2. Ghosh, Saibal, 2023. "Social unrest and corporate behaviour during the Arab Spring period," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    4. Marina Diakonova & Luis Molina & Hannes Mueller & Javier J. Pérez & Cristopher Rauh, 2022. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 2232, Banco de España.
    5. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    6. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Perez & Elena Vidal, 2024. "Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 643-692, August.
    7. Diakonova, Marina & Ghirelli, Corinna & Molina, Luis & Pérez, Javier J., 2023. "The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: The case of Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-90.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social unrest; Media coverage;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H80 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - General

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