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Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Philip Barrett
  • Maximiliano Appendino
  • Kate Nguyen
  • Jorge de Leon Miranda

Abstract

We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Philip Barrett & Maximiliano Appendino & Kate Nguyen & Jorge de Leon Miranda, 2020. "Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports," IMF Working Papers 2020/129, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/129
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Jiaowei & Shi, Xiangyu & Wang, Chang & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Extreme high temperatures and adaptation by social dynamics: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    2. Ghosh, Saibal, 2023. "Social unrest and corporate behaviour during the Arab Spring period," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    4. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    5. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    6. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
    7. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Perez & Elena Vidal, 2024. "Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 643-692, August.
    8. Diakonova, Marina & Ghirelli, Corinna & Molina, Luis & Pérez, Javier J., 2023. "The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: The case of Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-90.
    9. Peterson K. Ozili, 2025. "Country-wide protests and financial stability," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25.
    10. Shangshang Li, 2024. "What Hinders Structural Reforms?," Working Papers 202404, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    11. Albertus, Michael & Menaldo, Victor & Rojas-Vallejos, Jorge, 2025. "Why elites sometimes undo their own constitutional privileges," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    12. repec:cam:camjip:2413 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H80 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - General

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