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Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?

Author

Listed:
  • Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Bracco, Jessica

    (CEDLAS-UNLP)

  • Ham Gonzalez, Andres

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

We study how drug-related violence affects emigration from Central America, a region with rapidly rising migration to the United States. Using multiple data sources, we apply an instrumental variables strategy based on proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. We find that violence significantly increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate—especially to the U.S.—with stronger effects among young and high-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests this response is driven by declining economic activity and, more importantly, deteriorating labor market conditions caused by escalating violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo & Bracco, Jessica & Ham Gonzalez, Andres & Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo, 2025. "Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?," IZA Discussion Papers 18028, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18028
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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N96 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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