IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/izamig/v7y2017i1d10.1186_s40176-017-0102-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Violence and migration: evidence from Mexico’s drug war

Author

Listed:
  • Sukanya Basu

    () (Vassar College)

  • Sarah Pearlman

    () (Vassar College)

Abstract

The effect of violence on people’s residential choice remains a debated topic in the literature on crime and conflict. We examine the case of the drug war in Mexico, which dramatically increased the number of homicides since late 2006. Using data from the Mexican Census and labor force surveys, we estimate the impact of violence on migration at the municipal and state levels. To account for the endogeneity of violence, we use kilometers of federal highways interacted with cocaine supply shocks from Colombia as an instrument for the annual homicide rate. We argue that highways are good measures of pre-existing drug distribution networks, and the interaction with supply shocks arising in Colombia captures the time-variant nature of the value of these routes. After controlling for observed and unobserved area level heterogeneity, we find little evidence that increases in homicides have led to out-migration, at the domestic level. We also find little evidence of international migration at the municipal level, but some evidence of it at the state level. Our results show a muted migration response that is incompatible with a story of wide-scale displacement from the violence. JEL Classification O12, K42, O54, J11

Suggested Citation

  • Sukanya Basu & Sarah Pearlman, 2017. "Violence and migration: evidence from Mexico’s drug war," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:7:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-017-0102-6
    DOI: 10.1186/s40176-017-0102-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40176-017-0102-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    2. Maren M. Michaelsen & Paola Salardi, 2018. "Violence, Psychological Stress and Educational Performance during the "War on Drugs" in Mexico," Working Papers tecipa-595, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    3. De Mello Joao M & Zilberman Eduardo, 2008. "Does Crime Affect Economic Decisions? An Empirical Investigation of Savings in a High-Crime Environment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Catherine Rodriguez & Edgar Villa, 2012. "Kidnap risks and migration: evidence from Colombia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1139-1164, July.
    5. Valsecchi, Michele, 2014. "Land property rights and international migration: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 276-290.
    6. Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2009. "Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 399-418, May.
    7. Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo, 2014. "Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War - Working Paper 356," Working Papers 356, Center for Global Development.
    8. Oeindrila Dube, Omar Garcia-Ponce, and Kevin Thom, 2014. "From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector - Working Paper 355," Working Papers 355, Center for Global Development.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Paulo Orraca Romano, 2015. "Crime Exposure and Educational Outcomes in Mexico," Working Paper Series 7715, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Duque, Valentina, 2019. "Violence and Children’s Education: Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Papers 2019-16, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    3. Pedro Paulo Orraca-Romano, 2018. "Crime Exposure and Educational Outcomes in Mexico. (Violencia y desempeño académico en México)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 177-212, October.
    4. Lara, Jaime, 2018. "Subjective Well-Being among Communities Left Behind by International Migrants," MPRA Paper 87051, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. René Cabral & André Varella Mollick & Eduardo Saucedo, 2016. "Violence in Mexico and its effects on labor productivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 317-339, March.
    6. Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie & Federico Masera, 2020. "Pains, Guns and Moves: The Effect of the US Opioid Epidemic on Mexican Migration," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20141, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Roberto Coronado & Eduardo Saucedo, 2019. "Drug-related violence in Mexico and its effects on employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 653-681, August.
    8. Pedro P. Orraca‐Romano & Eunice D. Vargas‐Valle, 2020. "Drug‐related violence and the decline in the number of Mexican cross‐border workers," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 485-502, May.
    9. Orraca Romano, Pedro Paulo, 2016. "Essays on development and labour economics for Mexico," Economics PhD Theses 0816, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Magda Tsaneva & Marc Rockmore & Zahra Albohmood, 2019. "The effect of violent crime on female decision-making within the household: evidence from the Mexican war on drugs," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 615-646, June.
    11. Marí­a Padilla-Romo & Cecilia Peluffo, 2020. "Violence-Induced Migration and Peer Effects in Academic Performance," Working Papers 2020-03, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Ana María Ibá-ez, 2014. "Growth in forced displacement: cross-country, sub-national and household evidence on potential determinants," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 13, pages 350-387, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Singh, Prakarsh, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: evidence from the Punjab insurgency," MPRA Paper 33328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fonner, Robert & Bohara, Alok K & Archambault, Stephen, 2018. "Migration Choices during Conflict in Nepal: Pull Forces and Landscape Interactions," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 46-61.
    5. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko & Andrew Tedesco, 2016. "Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-level Surveys: Current Practices and Methodological Challenges," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 29-58.
    6. Maclin, Beth J. & Kelly, Jocelyn T.D. & Perks, Rachel & Vinck, Patrick & Pham, Phuong, 2017. "Moving to the mines: Motivations of men and women for migration to artisanal and small-scale mining sites in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-122.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2019. "The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-110.
    8. Pedro Paulo Orraca Romano, 2015. "Crime Exposure and Educational Outcomes in Mexico," Working Paper Series 7715, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 132, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Duygu Ozaltin & Farah Shakir & Neophytos Loizides, 2020. "Why Do People Flee? Revisiting Forced Migration in Post-Saddam Baghdad," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 587-610, June.
    11. Diego Esparza & Jessica Lucas & Enrique Martinez & James Meernik & Ignacio Molinero & Victoria Nevarez, 2020. "Movement of the people: Violence and internal displacement," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 233-250, September.
    12. Bruno Karoubi & Régis Chenavaz & Corina Paraschiv, 2016. "Consumers’ perceived risk and hold and use of payment instruments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(14), pages 1317-1329, March.
    13. Jie Bai & Seema Jayachandran & Edmund J Malesky & Benjamin A Olken, 2019. "Firm Growth and Corruption: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 651-677.
    14. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2015. "Economic shocks in the fisheries sector and maritime piracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 107-125.
    15. Hong, Yan-Zhen & Chang, Hung-Hao & Dai, Yong-Wu, 2018. "Is deregulation of forest land use rights transactions associated with economic well-being and labor allocation of farm households? Empirical evidence in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 694-701.
    16. Detotto Claudio & Vannini Marco & McCannon Bryan C., 2014. "Understanding Ransom Kidnappings and Their Duration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, July.
    17. Olsson, Ola & Siba, Eyerusalem, 2013. "Ethnic cleansing or resource struggle in Darfur? An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 299-312.
    18. Jérémie GIGNOUX & Karen MACOURS & Liam WREN-LEWIS, 2015. "Impact of land administration programs on agricultural productivity and rural development: existing evidence, challenges and new approaches," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 96(3), pages 467-498.
    19. Baez, Javier E., 2011. "Civil wars beyond their borders: The human capital and health consequences of hosting refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 391-408, November.
    20. Rose Ann Camille C. Caliso & Jamil Paolo S. Francisco & Emmanuel M. Garcia, 2020. "Broad Insecurity and Perceived Victimization Risk," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 32(2), pages 160-179, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Homicides; Migration; Drug distribution networks; Mexico; Conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:7:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-017-0102-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.