IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v174y2025ics0304387825000070.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Author

Listed:
  • Abreha, Kaleb
  • Johnson, Trinity
  • Robertson, Raymond

Abstract

We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

Suggested Citation

  • Abreha, Kaleb & Johnson, Trinity & Robertson, Raymond, 2025. "Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000070
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387825000070
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2022. "Spreading Gangs: Exporting US Criminal Capital to El Salvador," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1985-2024, June.
    2. Kalsi, Priti, 2018. "The impact of U.S. deportation of criminals on gang development and education in El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 433-448.
    3. Sarah Bohn & Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2014. "Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 258-269, May.
    4. Scott J. South & Katherine Trent & Soojin Han, 2024. "Exposure to Violence and Migration from Mexico to the United States," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 281-307, March.
    5. Cris Beauchemin & Jocelyn Nappa & Bruno Schoumaker & Pau Baizan & Amparo González-Ferrer & Kim Caarls & Valentina Mazzucato, 2015. "Reunifying Versus Living Apart Together Across Borders: A Comparative Analysis of sub-Saharan Migration to Europe," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 173-199, March.
    6. Nikita Melnikov & Carlos Schmidt-Padilla & Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2020. "Gangs, Labor Mobility and Development," NBER Working Papers 27832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Camille Landais & Emmanuel Saez, 2013. "Taxation and International Migration of Superstars: Evidence from the European Football Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1892-1924, August.
    9. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    10. Gordon Hanson & Chen Liu & Craig McIntosh, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Low-Skilled Immigration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 83-168.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Salvatore Piccolo & Paolo Pinotti, 2019. "Organized Crime, Violence, and Politics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 457-499.
    12. Michael W. Robbins & Jessica Saunders & Beau Kilmer, 2017. "A Framework for Synthetic Control Methods With High-Dimensional, Micro-Level Data: Evaluating a Neighborhood-Specific Crime Intervention," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 109-126, January.
    13. Murphy, Tommy E. & Rossi, Martín A., 2020. "Following the poppy trail: Origins and consequences of Mexican drug cartels," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    15. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    16. Gianmarco Daniele & Benny Geys, 2015. "Organised Crime, Institutions and Political Quality: Empirical Evidence from Italian Municipalities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 233-255, August.
    17. repec:sae:mrxval:v:49:y:2015:i:1:p:173-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Halliday, Timothy, 2006. "Migration, Risk, and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 893-925, July.
    19. Litterio Mirenda & Sauro Mocetti & Lucia Rizzica, 2022. "The Economic Effects of Mafia: Firm Level Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2748-2773, August.
    20. Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Paz, Cynthia, 2024. "COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    21. Timothy J. Hatton, 2020. "Asylum Migration to the Developed World: Persecution, Incentives, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 75-93, Winter.
    22. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    23. Paolo Pinotti, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Organised Crime: Evidence from Southern Italy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 203-232, August.
    24. Fernanda Martínez Flores, 2020. "The Effects of Enhanced Enforcement at Mexico’s Southern Border: Evidence From Central American Deportees," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1597-1623, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    2. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    3. Niklas Potrafke & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Green governments," Papers 2012.09906, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    4. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    5. Pierfrancesco Rolla & Patricia Justino, 2022. "The social consequences of organized crime in Italy," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    7. Cummins Joseph & Miller Douglas L. & Smith Brock & Simon David, 2024. "Matching on Noise: Finite Sample Bias in the Synthetic Control Estimator," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 67-95, January.
    8. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Stefania Fontana & Giorgio d’Agostino, 2024. "Anti-mafia policies and public goods in Italy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 493-529, March.
    10. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    11. Kaul, Ashok & Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor & Schieler, Manuel, 2015. "Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," MPRA Paper 83790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jaime Arellano-Bover & Marco De Simoni & Luigi Guiso & Rocco Macchiavello & Domenico J. Marchetti & Mounu Prem, 2024. "Mafias and Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 11043, CESifo.
      • Arellano-Bover, Jaime & De Simoni, Marco & Guiso, Luigi & Macchiavello, Rocco & Marchetti, Domenico J. & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "Mafias and Firms," SocArXiv sr6ep, Center for Open Science.
      • Arellano-Bover, Jaime & De Simoni, Marco & Guiso, Luigi & Macchiavello, Rocco & Marchetti, Domenico J. & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "Mafias and Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16893, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
      • De Simoni, Marco & Guiso, Luigi & Macchiavello, Rocco & Marchetti, Domenico J. & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "Mafias and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 18982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Buonanno, Paolo & Ferrari, Irene & Saia, Alessandro, 2024. "All is not lost: Organized crime and social capital formation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    14. Vincent Geloso & Chandler S. Reilly, 2025. "Revisiting Quebec's Quiet Revolution: A synthetic control analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 548-579, May.
    15. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Vincent Geloso & Chandler S. Reilly, 2022. "Did the ‘Quiet Revolution’ Really Change Anything?," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-30, CIRANO.
    17. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2021. "Decoupling synthetic control methods to ensure stability, accuracy and meaningfulness," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 549-584, December.
    18. repec:osf:osfxxx:brhd3_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Kleis, Mischa & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2016. "The long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: Evidence from quantitative case studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2016.
    21. repec:ags:aaea22:335971 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "Banks' leverage in foreign exchange derivatives in times of crisis: A tale of two countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Crime and violence; Poverty; El Salvador; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.