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Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Author

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  • Abreha, Kaleb
  • Johnson, Trinity
  • Robertson, Raymond

Abstract

We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

Suggested Citation

  • Abreha, Kaleb & Johnson, Trinity & Robertson, Raymond, 2025. "Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000070
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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