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Revisiting Quebec's Quiet Revolution: A synthetic control analysis

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  • Vincent Geloso
  • Chandler S. Reilly

Abstract

The year 1960 is often presented as a break year in the economic history of Quebec and Canada. It is used to mark the beginning of the “Quiet Revolution” during which Canada's French‐speaking province of Quebec underwent rapid socio‐economic change in the form of rapid economic convergence with the rest of Canada and the emergence of a more expansive state (more so than in the rest of Canada). Using synthetic control methods, we analyze whether 1960 is associated with a departure from previous developments. With regards to GDP per capita, GDP per worker, household‐size adjusted income, real wages and enrolment rates in primary and secondary schools, we find that 1960 was not an important date. For all macroeconomic indicators and enrolment rates, the counterfactual scenarios do not significantly differ from the actual data. For life expectancy at birth and completed schooling outcomes by schooling cohorts, we find that 1960 did mark a significant departure—albeit a modest one. We also find signs that size of government changed markedly after 1960. Shifting to other methods such as panel approach or time series strategy do not alter these results. Retour sur la Révolution tranquille au Québec : une analyse de contrôle synthétique. On parle souvent de l'année 1960 comme d'une année de rupture dans l'histoire économique du Québec et du Canada. On l'utilise pour marquer le commencement de la « Révolution tranquille », au cours de laquelle la province francophone du Québec a connu des changements socio‐économiques fulgurants sous la forme d'une convergence économique rapide avec le reste du Canada et de l'émergence d'un État plus expansif (davantage que dans le reste du Canada). Grâce à des méthodes de contrôle synthétique, nous analysons le lien possible entre l'année 1960 et une rupture par rapport aux développements précédents. En ce qui concerne le PIB par habitant, le PIB par travailleur, le revenu corrigé en fonction de la taille du ménage, les salaires réels et les taux d'inscription dans les écoles primaires et secondaires, nous constatons que 1960 n'a pas été une date importante. Pour tous les indicateurs macroéconomiques et les taux d'inscription, les scénarios contrefactuels ne diffèrent pas considérablement des données réelles. En ce qui concerne l'espérance de vie à la naissance et la diplomation par cohortes scolaires, nous constatons que 1960 a marqué un changement notable, bien que modeste. Nous trouvons également des signes indiquant que la taille du gouvernement a sensiblement changé après 1960. Le passage à d'autres méthodes comme l'approche par panel ou la stratégie des séries chronologiques ne modifie pas ces résultats.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Geloso & Chandler S. Reilly, 2025. "Revisiting Quebec's Quiet Revolution: A synthetic control analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 548-579, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:58:y:2025:i:2:p:548-579
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.70000
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