IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cir/cirwor/2022s-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the ‘Quiet Revolution’ Really Change Anything?

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Geloso
  • Chandler S. Reilly

Abstract

The year 1960 is often presented as a break year in the economic history of Quebec and Canada. It is used to mark the beginning of the “Quiet Revolution” during which Canada’s French-speaking province of Quebec under rapid socio-economic change in the form of rapid economic convergence with the rest of Canada and the emergence of a more expansive state. Using synthetic control methods, we analyze whether 1960 is associated with a departure from previous developments. With regards to GDP per capita, GDP per worker, household-size adjusted income, life expectancy at birth, and enrollment rates in primary and secondary schools, we find that 1960 was not an important date. For most of these measures, the counterfactual scenario is slightly better than the actual data but not by significant margins. Only with respect to the size of government do we find sign of a break. L'année 1960 est présentée comme une année charnière dans l'histoire économique du Québec. Cette année marque le début de la révolution tranquille et du rattrapage économique du Québec suite à la création d'un État plus interventionniste. En faisant usage de la méthode des contrôles synthétiques, nous évaluons si cette année marque véritablement un point de départ. Nous trouvons que le rattrapage économique et scolaire du Québec n'a pas accéléré en 1960. Nous trouvons un effet positif mais modeste au titre de l'espérance de vie à la naissance. Nous trouvons aussi un effet positif important au titre de la taille de l'État.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Geloso & Chandler S. Reilly, 2022. "Did the ‘Quiet Revolution’ Really Change Anything?," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-30, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2022s-30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    2. Vincent Geloso & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Demographic change and regional convergence in Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1904-1910.
    3. Robin W. Boadway & Frank R. Flatters, 1982. "Efficiency and Equalization Payments in a Federal System of Government: A Synthesis and Extension of Recent Results," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 613-633, November.
    4. Jason Dean & Vincent Geloso, 2022. "The linguistic wage gap in Quebec, 1901 to 1951," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 615-637, September.
    5. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    6. Sarah Bohn & Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2014. "Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 258-269, May.
    7. Bev Dahlby, 2011. "The marginal cost of public funds and the flypaper effect," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(3), pages 304-321, June.
    8. Bergh, Andreas, 2020. "Hayekian welfare states: explaining the coexistence of economic freedom and big government," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    10. Scott Cunningham & Manisha Shah, 2018. "Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1683-1715.
    11. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    12. Sebastian Galiani & Brian Quistorff, 2017. "The synth runner package: Utilities to automate synthetic control estimation using synth," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(4), pages 834-849, December.
    13. Grier, Kevin & Maynard, Norman, 2016. "The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez: A synthetic control analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-21.
    14. Vincent J. Geloso, 2019. "Distinct within North America: living standards in French Canada, 1688–1775," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 277-321, May.
    15. Vincent Geloso, 2017. "Rethinking Canadian Economic Growth and Development since 1900," Palgrave Studies in Economic History, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-319-49950-5, December.
    16. Geloso, Vincent & Pavlik, Jamie Bologna, 2021. "The Cuban revolution and infant mortality: A synthetic control approach," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Vincent Geloso & Gonzalo Macera, 2020. "How Poor Were Quebec and Canada During the 1840s?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(2), pages 792-810, March.
    18. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    19. Morris Altman, 2003. "Staple theory and export‐led growth: constructing differential growth," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 43(3), pages 230-255, November.
    20. Lindert,Peter H., 2021. "Making Social Spending Work," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108478168, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    2. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    3. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    4. Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    5. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Harouna Sedgo, 2024. "Corruption and leadership in Africa: Evidence from Burkina Faso," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    8. Federica Daniele & Elena Romito, 2022. "The impact of "Metro C" in Rome on the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1394, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Cruz A. Echevarría & Javier García-Enríquez, 2020. "The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1453-1477, September.
    10. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    11. Cummins Joseph & Miller Douglas L. & Smith Brock & Simon David, 2024. "Matching on Noise: Finite Sample Bias in the Synthetic Control Estimator," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 67-95, January.
    12. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    13. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Robbert Maseland & Rok Spruk, 2023. "The benefits of US statehood: an analysis of the growth effects of joining the USA," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 49-89, January.
    15. Geloso, Vincent J. & Grier, Kevin B., 2022. "Love on the rocks: The causal effects of separatist governments in Quebec," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    17. Denti, Daria & Iammarino, Simona, 2022. "Coming Out of the Woods. Do local support services influence the propensity to report sexual violence?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 334-352.
    18. Diego D'iaz & Pablo Paniagua & Cristi'an Larroulet, 2024. "Earthquakes and the wealth of nations: The cases of Chile and New Zealand," Papers 2405.12041, arXiv.org.
    19. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
    20. Kaul, Ashok & Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor & Schieler, Manuel, 2015. "Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," MPRA Paper 83790, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; human capital; health outcomes; economic history; Quebec; Quiet Revolution; Croissance économique; capital humain; santé; histoire économique; Québec; Révolution tranquille;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciranca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.