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The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez: A synthetic control analysis

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  • Grier, Kevin
  • Maynard, Norman

Abstract

We use the synthetic control method to perform a case study of the impact of Hugo Chavez on the Venezuelan economy. We compare outcomes under Chavez's leadership and polices against a counterfactual of “business as usual” in similar countries. We find that, relative to our control, per capita income fell dramatically. While poverty, health, and inequality outcomes all improved during the Chavez administration, these outcomes also improved in each of the corresponding control cases and thus we cannot attribute the improvements to Chavismo. We conclude that the overall economic consequences of the Chavez administration were bleak.

Suggested Citation

  • Grier, Kevin & Maynard, Norman, 2016. "The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez: A synthetic control analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:125:y:2016:i:c:p:1-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.12.011
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:exehis:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joshua C. Hall & Josh Matti & Yang Zhou, 2017. "The Economic Impact of City-County Consolidations: A Synthetic Control Approach," Working Papers 17-08, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    3. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel, 2018. "“Do government formation deadlocks damage economic growth? Evidence from history’s longest period of political deadlock”," IREA Working Papers 201817, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2018.
    4. repec:eee:jeborg:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:83-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    6. repec:eee:poleco:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:44-56 is not listed on IDEAS

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