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Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions

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  • Clemens, Michael A.

Abstract

Does violence lead to flight from cities in the developing world? This paper estimates the effect of violent crime in municipalities of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on the irregular emigration of children to the United States. It studies the full universe of 178,825 unaccompanied child migrants from those countries apprehended in the U.S. from 2011 to 2016. In the average municipality, generalized insecurity that produces 10 additional homicides in the origin city caused between three and six cumulative additional child-migrant apprehensions in the U.S.—a measure of irregular migration. Diffusion of migration experience through peer and family networks produces self-reinforcing, city-specific waves of migration that can rise even after violence subsides.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:124:y:2021:i:c:s0094119021000371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103355
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    7. Roxana Gutierrez-Romero, 2022. "Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico," Working Papers 107, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.
    8. Roxana Guti'errez-Romero, 2022. "Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico," Papers 2212.12796, arXiv.org.
    9. Di Maio, Michele & Leone Sciabolazza, Valerio & Molini, Vasco, 2023. "Migration in Libya: A spatial network analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Emigration; Poverty; Aid; Migration hump; Gangs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N96 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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