IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cid/wpfacu/109a.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of the Mexican Drug War on Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Ramon Morales Arilla

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

Abstract

This paper studies the unintended economic consequences of increases in violence following the Mexican Drug War. We study the effects on exports in municipalities with different levels of exposure to violence after the policy. A focus on exports allows us to control for demand shocks by comparing exports of the same product to the same country of destination. Building on the close elections identification strategy proposed by Dell (2015), we show that municipalities that are exogenously exposed to the Drug War experience a 40% decrease in export growth on the in- tensive margin. Large exporters suffer larger effects, along with exports of more complex, capital intensive, and skill intensive products. Finally, using firm level data, we provide evidence consistent with violence increasing marginal exporting costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Ramon Morales Arilla, 2019. "The Impact of the Mexican Drug War on Trade," CID Working Papers 109a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:109a
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2019-02-cid-fellows-wp-109-mexican-drug-war.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    2. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
    3. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    4. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    5. Almunia, Miguel & Antràs, Pol & Lopez-Rodriguez, David & Morales, Eduardo, 2018. "Venting Out: Exports During a Domestic Slump," CEPR Discussion Papers 13380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hale Utar, 2018. "Firms and Labor in Times of Violence: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War," CESifo Working Paper Series 7345, CESifo.
    7. Michael A. Clemens, 2017. "Violence, Development, and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central American Child Migrant Apprehensions - Working Paper 459," Working Papers 459, Center for Global Development.
    8. Melissa Dell, 2015. "Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1738-1779, June.
    9. Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 810-833, April.
    10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    11. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Rodrigo R. Soares & Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 158-195, October.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    13. Keith R. Ihlanfeldt, 2007. "Neighborhood Drug Crime and Young Males' Job Accessibility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 151-164, February.
    14. Julie Berry Cullen & Steven D. Levitt, 1999. "Crime, Urban Flight, And The Consequences For Cities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 159-169, May.
    15. Melissa Dell & Benjamin Feigenberg & Kensuke Teshima, 2019. "The Violent Consequences of Trade-Induced Worker Displacement in Mexico," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-58, June.
    16. Claudio Frischtak & Benjamin R. Mandel, 2012. "Crime, house prices, and inequality: the effect of UPPs in Rio," Staff Reports 542, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Soares, Rodrigo R., 2004. "Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 155-184, February.
    18. Lamont, Owen & Polk, Christopher & Saa-Requejo, Jesus, 2001. "Financial Constraints and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 529-554.
    19. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Morán, Hilcías E., 2011. "The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 41-61, January.
    20. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: New Facts on the Internationalization of European Firms Based on Firm-level Evidence," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 221-244.
    21. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    22. Brown, Ryan & Velásquez, Andrea, 2017. "The effect of violent crime on the human capital accumulation of young adults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-12.
    23. Ashby, Nathan J. & Ramos, Miguel A., 2013. "Foreign direct investment and industry response to organized crime: The Mexican case," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 80-91.
    24. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2016. "Trade and Terrorism: A Disaggregated Approach," Working Papers 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Hale Utar, 2018. "Firms and Labor in Times of Violence: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War," CESifo Working Paper Series 7345, CESifo.
    3. Volker Nitsch & Isabelle Rabaud, 2019. "Under Attack: Terrorism and International Trade in France, 2014-16," Working Papers hal-02411649, HAL.
    4. Germá-Bel & Maximilian Holst, 2016. "“A two-Sided coin: Disentangling the economic effects of the 'War on drugs' in Mexico”," IREA Working Papers 201611, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    5. Anousheh Alamir & Tillmann Heidelk, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Education," Working Papers ECARES 2020-05, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo, 2018. "Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1054, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    9. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Peter Egger & Martin Gassebner, 2015. "International terrorism as a trade impediment?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 42-62.
    11. Brunello, Giorgio & Gereben, Áron & Weiss, Christoph T. & Wruuck, Patricia, 2020. "Financing Constraints and Employers' Investment in Training," IZA Discussion Papers 13067, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    13. Reshad N. Ahsan & Kazi Iqbal, 2020. "How does violence affect exporters? Evidence from political strikes in Bangladesh," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 599-625, August.
    14. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Terrorismus und internationaler Handel: Probleme und Ergebnisse empirischer Untersuchungen," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 41-50.
    15. Chaudhry, Naukhaiz & Roubaud, David & Akhter, Waheed & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Impact of terrorism on stock markets: Empirical evidence from the SAARC region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 230-234.
    16. Fernanda Marquez-Padilla & Francisco Perez-Arce & Carlos Rodriguez-Castelan, 2015. "The (Non-) Effect of Violence on Education Evidence from the "War on Drugs" in Mexico," Working Papers WR-1082, RAND Corporation.
    17. Stacy Julius & Nnanna P. Azu & Maimuna Y. Muhammad, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Terrorism in Trade Development in the SADC Region: A Gravity Model Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(10), pages 1147-1159, October.
    18. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    19. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    20. Syed Hasanat Shah & Hafsa Hasnat & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad, 2016. "The Effects of the Human Cost of Terror on National Income, Private Consumption and Investment in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 216-235, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Violence; Mexico; Regression Discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • N76 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:109a. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciharus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chuck McKenney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.