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Rational inattention and migration decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Bertoli

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jesus Fernandez-Huertas Moraga

    (UAM - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

  • Lucas Guichard

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

Acquiring information about destinations can be costly for migrants. We model information frictions in the rational inattention framework and obtain a closed-form expression for a migration gravity equation that we bring to the data. The model predicts that flows from countries with a higher cost of information or stronger priors are less responsive to variations in economic conditions in the various destinations, as migrants rationally get less information before deciding where to move. The economet-ric analysis reveals systematic heterogeneity in the pro-cyclical behavior of migration flows across origins that is consistent with the existence of information frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernandez-Huertas Moraga & Lucas Guichard, 2020. "Rational inattention and migration decisions," Post-Print hal-02902862, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02902862
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103364
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-02902862v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Catia & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Testing classic theories of migration in the lab," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Baley, Isaac & Veldkamp, Laura, 2021. "Bayesian Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 16377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Silvia Bertarelli, 2025. "Costly information and rational inattention by exporters," SEEDS Working Papers 0425, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jun 2025.
    4. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    5. Langella, Monica & Manning, Alan, 2021. "Income and the desire to migrate," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Angela S. Bergantino & Antonello Clemente & Stefano Iandolo & Riccardo Turati, 2025. "Shaped by Urban-Rural Divide and Skill: the Drivers of Internal Mobility in Italy," Working Papers wpdea2513, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    7. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2025. "The Second Spanish Immigration Boom," IZA Discussion Papers 18185, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Di Maio,Michele & Elmallakh,Nelly Youssef Louis William & Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio, 2024. "News Sentiment in Destination Countries and Migration Choices : Evidence from Libya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10754, The World Bank.
    9. Beine, Michel & Bierlaire, Michel & Docquier, Frédéric, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 14090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Ian Ball & James Bono & Justin Grana & Nicole Immorlica & Brendan Lucier & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Content Filtering with Inattentive Information Consumers," Papers 2205.14060, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    11. Fuchs, Andreas & Gröger, André & Heidland, Tobias & Wellner, Lukas, 2023. "The effect of foreign aid on migration: Global micro evidence from world bank projects," Kiel Working Papers 2257, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Persyn, Damiaan, 2021. "Migrants looking for opportunities - On destination size and spatial aggregation in the gravity equation for migration," MPRA Paper 111064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sergey Turlo & Matteo Fina & Johannes Kasinger & Arash Laghaie & Thomas Otter, 2025. "Discrete choice in marketing through the lens of rational inattention," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 45-104, March.
    14. Roc Armenter & Michèle Müller‐Itten & Zachary R. Stangebye, 2024. "Geometric methods for finite rational inattention," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), pages 115-144, January.
    15. Roc Armenter & Michèle Müller-Itten & Zachary Strangebye, 2021. "Geometric Methods for Finite Rational Inattention," Working Papers 21-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Mitrică, Bianca & Damian, Nicoleta & Grigorescu, Ines & Mocanu, Irena & Dumitraşcu, Monica & Persu, Mihaela, 2022. "Out-migration and social and technological marginalization in Romania. Regional disparities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    17. Lucas Guichard & Joël Machado, 2025. "The externalities of immigration policies on migration flows: the case of an asylum policy," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 59-74.
    18. David G. Blanchflower & Alex Bryson, 2021. "The Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns," NBER Working Papers 29372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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