Deportations and the transnational roots of gang violence in Central America

It has often been claimed that the violent gangs that haunt Central America today are rooted in urban metropoles of the United States and have been exported to Central America through the deportation of convicted gang members. This case study on El Salvador provides econometric evidence that the deportation of convicts led to the spread of gangs along migration corridors. Cross-sectional analysis at the subnational level reveals that migrants’ municipalities of origin have a higher probability of gang presence today when migrant corridors developed around US destinations with high incidences of violent crime before migrants arrived. The cross-sectional evidence is backed by panel data analysis that allows testing the underlying mechanism. The inflow of convicted felons translated into rising homicide rates along migration corridors, whereas the inflow of non-convicts did not increase violence. In sum, the inflow of deported convicts constituted an exogenous spark of violence that had large and lasting consequences in countries that lacked the social, institutional and economic capacities to control the spread of gangs.