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When do refugees return home? Evidence from Syrian displacement in Mashreq

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  • Beaman, Lori
  • Onder, Harun
  • Onder, Stefanie

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of refugee returns to Syria. Since 2011, about 5.6 million Syrians – more than a quarter of the country’s pre-conflict population – have been registered as refugees. By mid-2018, only about 1.8 percent of them had returned to Syria voluntarily. This paper compiles a novel data set with administrative data for 2 million refugees, existing and new household surveys, a new conflict-events database, and nightlights data for Syria to analyze the correlates of these returns. A reduction in conflict intensity and an increase in luminosity in Syria increase the likelihood of spontaneous return. Moreover, the patterns of who returns and when differ between high and low conflict areas of Syria. Finally, we show there is a positive association between better conditions faced by refugees in exile and the likelihood of return to Syria.

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  • Beaman, Lori & Onder, Harun & Onder, Stefanie, 2022. "When do refugees return home? Evidence from Syrian displacement in Mashreq," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:155:y:2022:i:c:s0304387821001589
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102802
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    Cited by:

    1. Joop Adema & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Yvonne Giesing & Panu Poutvaara, 2023. "The Effect of Conflict on Ukrainian Refugees’ Return and Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 10877, CESifo.
    2. Sarah Stillman & Sandra V Rozo & Abdulrazzak Tamim & I Bailey Palmer & Emma Smith & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Syrian refugee life study: first glance [‘Economic Life in Refugee Camps’]," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 625-653.
    3. Jacopo Bassetto & Teresa Freitas Monteiro, 2024. "Immigrants’ Returns Intentions and Job Search Behavior When the Home Country Is Unsafe," CESifo Working Paper Series 10908, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return migration; Forced displacement; Refugees;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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