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International migration and illegal costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe smuggling routes

Author

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  • Friebel, Guido
  • Manchin, Miriam
  • Mendola, Mariapia
  • Prarolo, Giovanni

Abstract

The 2011 Arab Spring marked the opening of the Central Mediterranean Route for irregular border crossings between Libya and Italy, which produced heterogeneous reductions of bilateral smuggling distances between country pairs in the Mediterranean region. We exploit this source of spatial and temporal variation in bilateral distance along land and sea routes to estimate the elasticity of irregular migration intentions for African and Near East countries. We estimate an elasticity of migration intentions to smuggling distances exceeding −3, mainly driven by countries with weak rule of law and high internet penetration. Our findings are consistent across irregular migration measures both at the aggregate and individual levels. We show that irregular migration elasticity is higher for youth, relatively skilled individuals and those with an informative advantage (having a social network abroad or a mobile phone).

Suggested Citation

  • Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2024. "International migration and illegal costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe smuggling routes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:148:y:2024:i:c:s0022199624000023
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103878
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; Human smuggling; Illegal migration; Arab spring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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