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Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run

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  • Gordon Hanson
  • Craig McIntosh

Abstract

How will worldwide changes in population affect pressures for international migration in the future? We contrast the past three decades, during which population pressures contributed to substantial labor flows from neighboring countries into the United States and Europe, with the coming three decades, which will see sharp reductions in labor-supply growth in Latin America but not in Africa or much of the Middle East. Using a gravity-style empirical model, we examine the contribution of changes in relative labor-supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and then apply this model to project future bilateral flows based on long-run UN forecasts of working-age populations in sending and receiving countries. Because the Americas are entering an era of uniformly low population growth, labor flows across the Rio Grande are projected to slow markedly. Europe, in contrast, will face substantial demographically driven migration pressures from across the Mediterranean for decades to come. Although these projected inflows would triple the first-generation immigrant stocks of larger European countries, they would still absorb only a small fraction of the 800-million-person increase in the working-age population of Sub-Saharan Africa that is projected to occur over the coming 40 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2016. "Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run," NBER Working Papers 22622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22622
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    2. Antonio Spilimbergo & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1337-1357, December.
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    5. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2007. "Explaining U.S. Immigration, 1971-1998," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 359-373, May.
    6. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 715-735, November.
    7. Gordon H. Hanson, 2006. "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 869-924, December.
    8. Brian C. O'Neill & Sergei Scherbov & Wolfgang Lutz, 1999. "The Long‐Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(4), pages 749-756, December.
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    13. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    14. Gordon H. Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2012. "Birth Rates and Border Crossings: Latin American Migration to the US, Canada, Spain and the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 707-726, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Papers P223, FERDI.
    2. repec:zbw:medamr:182240 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0054-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2018. "“The Impact of Immigration on Native Employment: Evidence from Italy”," AQR Working Papers 201811, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2018.
    5. repec:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0051-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. André Gröger, 2019. "Easy Come, Easy Go? Economic Shocks, Labor Migration and the Family Left Behind," Working Papers 1086, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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