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The European crisis and migration to Germany

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  • Bertoli, Simone
  • Brücker, Herbert
  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús

Abstract

The size of migration flows to Germany from other European countries surged in the aftermath of the 2010 European crisis, and this paper explores the main determinants of this large increase. International migrants tend to move more than once in their lives, and migration episodes to Germany make no exception in this respect. This paper explores some relevant implications of this simple observation for the estimation of gravity models, which is done here with bilateral monthly migration data. We demonstrate that ignoring the sequential nature of migration decisions gives rise to multilateral resistance to migration, thus substantially biasing the estimates. We also show that the expectations about future economic conditions at origin significantly influence bilateral migration flows to Germany.

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  • Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2016. "The European crisis and migration to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 61-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:61-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.012
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    2. Li, Qiang & An, Lian & Zhang, Ren, 2023. "Corruption drives brain drain: Cross-country evidence from machine learning," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Arif, Imran, 2022. "Educational attainment, corruption, and migration: An empirical analysis from a gravity model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Immigration Policy and Macroeconomic Performance in France," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 121-122, pages 279-308.
    5. Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," Working Papers 2012-12, FEDEA.
    6. Huaxin Wang-Lu & Octasiano Miguel Valerio Mendoza, 2022. "Job Prospects and Labour Mobility in China," Papers 2207.08282, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    7. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    8. Beverelli, Cosimo & Orefice, Gianluca, 2019. "Migration deflection: The role of Preferential Trade Agreements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    10. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick A. Puhani, 2019. "Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Mauro Lanati & Alessandra Venturini, 2021. "Cultural change and the migration choice," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 799-852, November.
    12. Oghazi, Pejvak & Schultheiss, Rakel & Chirumalla, Koteshwar & Kalmer, Nicolas Philipp & Rad, Fakhreddin F., 2020. "User self-disclosure on social network sites: A cross-cultural study on Facebook’s privacy concepts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 531-540.
    13. Adunts, David & Brücker, Herbert & Fendel, Tanja & Hauptmann, Andreas & Keita, Sekou & Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2022. "Gesteuerte Erwerbsmigration nach Deutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202223, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
      • Brücker, Herbert & Adunts, Davit & Fendel, Tanja & Hauptmann, Andreas & Keita, Sekou & Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2022. "Gesteuerte Erwerbsmigration nach Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    14. Simone Bertoli, 2017. "Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? A Comment," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 255-259, July.
    15. Amanda Venta & Ericka Ball Cooper & Justin Bristow & Enrique Venta, 2019. "Preliminary Data Linking American Consumer Perceptions with Unauthorized Migration to the U.S," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 279-290, February.
    16. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Saiz, Albert, 2019. "Immigrant locations and native residential preferences: Emerging ghettos or new communities?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 133-151.
    17. Huber, Matthias & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Presence of language-learning opportunities and migration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Albert MILLOGO & Ines TROJETTE & Nicolas PÉRIDY, 2021. "Are government policies efficient to regulate immigration? Evidence from France," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 53, pages 23-49.
    19. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    20. Sandra M. Leitner, 2022. "A skill‐specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(4), pages 471-504, December.
    21. Martin Guzi & Štěpán Mikula, 2022. "Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 289-310, April.
    22. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Adriana Cardozo & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 210-223.
    23. Bellaumay, Rémy, 2023. "Migration for Happiness?," Notes de l'Observatoire du bien-être 2316b, CEPREMAP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; Multiple destinations; Dynamic discrete choice model; Expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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