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International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence Using Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes

Author

Listed:
  • Friebel, Guido
  • Manchin, Miriam
  • Mendola, Mariapia
  • Prarolo, Giovanni

Abstract

Irregular migrants from Africa and the Middle East flow into Europe along land and sea routes under the control of human smugglers. The demise of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 marked the opening of the Central Mediterranean Route for irregular border crossing between Libya and Italy. This resulted in the immediate expansion of the global smuggling network, which produced an asymmetric reduction in bilateral distance between country pairs across the Mediterranean sea. We exploit this source of spatial and time variation in irregular migration routes to estimate the elasticity of migration intentions to illegal moving costs proxied by distance. We build a novel dataset of geolocalized time-varying migration routes, combined with cross-country survey data on individual intentions to move from Africa (and the Middle East) into Europe. Netting out any country-by-time and pair-level confounders we find a large negative effect of distance along smuggling routes on individual migration intentions. Shorter distances increase the willingness to migrate especially for youth, (medium) skilled individuals and those with a network abroad. The effect is stronger in countries closer to Libya and with weak rule of law.

Suggested Citation

  • Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence Using Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claire Naiditch & Radu Vranceanu, 2020. "A matching model of the market for migrant smuggling services," Working Papers hal-02463193, HAL.
    2. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7781, CESifo.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton, 2020. "Asylum Migration to the Developed World: Persecution, Incentives, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 75-93, Winter.
    4. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2020. "Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8064, CESifo.
    5. Di Maio,Michele & Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio & Molini,Vasco, 2020. "Migration in Libya : A Spatial Network Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9110, The World Bank.
    6. Simone BERTOLI, 2019. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis," Working Paper c5999d24-4da2-42c5-8c94-e, Agence française de développement.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human Smuggling; illegal migration; International Migration; Libyan Civil War;

    JEL classification:

    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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