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Emigration Intentions : Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior

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  • van Dalen, H.P.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Henkens, K.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

Do people follow up on their intentions? In this paper we confront the emigration intentions formed by inhabitants of the Netherlands during the year 2004-2005 and the emigration steps they took in the subsequent two years. Three results stand out. First, it appears that intentions are good predictors of future emigration: 24 percent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate have actually emigrated within two years time. Second, within the group of potential emigrants, those who have emigrated and those who have not yet emigrated, do not differ much from each other. The potential emigrants who have not yet emigrated are in poorer health. Third, the forces that trigger emigration intentions are also the same forces that make people actually move.

Suggested Citation

  • van Dalen, H.P. & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions : Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Discussion Paper 2008-60, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:d78ea768-e1d5-4a80-baff-2f4b3ece7a01
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruyssen, Ilse & Salomone, Sara, 2018. "Female migration: A way out of discrimination?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 224-241.
    2. Isabelle Chort, 2012. "New insights into the selection process of Mexican migrants.What can we learn from discrepancies between intentions to migrate and actual moves to the U.S.?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00689467, HAL.
    3. Nikolova, Milena & Graham, Carol, 2015. "In transit: The well-being of migrants from transition and post-transition countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 164-186.
    4. Ralitza Dimova & François-Charles Wolff, 2015. "Remittances and Chain Migration: Longitudinal Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 554-568, May.
    5. Klaus Nowotny, 2016. "Are Overqualified Migrants Self-Selected? Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 303-346.
    6. Kerstin K. Zander & Akhilesh Surjan & Stephen T. Garnett, 2016. "Exploring the effect of heat on stated intentions to move," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 297-308, September.
    7. Manchin, Miriam & Orazbayev, Sultan, 2018. "Social networks and the intention to migrate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-374.
    8. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny, 2013. "Moving across Borders: Who is Willing to Migrate or to Commute?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 1462-1481, October.
    9. Artjoms Ivlevs, 2013. "Minorities on the move? Assessing post-enlargement emigration intentions of Latvia’s Russian speaking minority," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 51(1), pages 33-52, August.
    10. Klaus Nowotny, 2014. "Cross-border commuting and migration intentions: the roles of risk aversion and time preference," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 8(2), June.
    11. Guido, Friebel & Miriam, Manchin & Mariapia, Mendola & Giovanni, Prarolo, 2017. "Human Smuggling and Intentions to Migrate: Global Evidence from a Supply Shock along Africa-to-Europe Migration Routes," Working Papers 375, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2017.
    12. Isabelle Chort, 2012. "New insights into the selection process of Mexican migrants.What can we learn from discrepancies between intentions to migrate and actual moves to the U.S.?," Working Papers halshs-00689467, HAL.
    13. Artjoms Ivlevs & Roswitha King, 2012. "Family Migration Capital and Migration Intentions," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 118-129, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emigration; intentions; behavior; public domain;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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