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Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations

Author

Listed:
  • Mastrobuoni, Giovanni
  • Deiana, Claudio
  • Maheshri, Vikram

Abstract

The Central Mediterranean Sea is the world's most dangerous crossing for irregular migrants. In response to mounting deaths, European nations intensified search and rescue operations in 2013. We develop a model of irregular migration to identify the effects of these operations. Leveraging exogenous variation from rapidly varying crossing conditions, we find that smugglers responded by sending boats in adverse weather and shifting from seaworthy boats to flimsy rafts. In doing so, these operations induced more crossings in dangerous conditions, ultimately offsetting their intended safety benefits. A more successful policy should restrict the supply of rafts, expanding legal alternatives migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mastrobuoni, Giovanni & Deiana, Claudio & Maheshri, Vikram, 2021. "Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16173
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    2. Katherine Hoffmann Pham & Junpei Komiyama, 2024. "Strategic choices of migrants and smugglers in the Central Mediterranean sea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(4), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Giacomo Battiston & Lucia Corno & Eliana La Ferrara, 2024. "Informing Risky Migration: Evidence from a field experiment in Guinea," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def136, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mastrobuoni, Giovanni & Weidenholzer, Simon, 2025. "Running the risk: Immunity and mobility in response to a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Di Maio,Michele & Elmallakh,Nelly Youssef Louis William & Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio, 2024. "News Sentiment in Destination Countries and Migration Choices : Evidence from Libya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10754, The World Bank.
    6. Giacomo Battiston & Lucia Corno & Eliana La Ferrara, 2024. "Informing Risky Migration: Evidence from a field experiment in Guinea," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2434, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    7. Liu, Ziheng, 2025. "CO2-driven crop comparative advantage and planting decision: Evidence from US cropland," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2025. "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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