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The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution

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  • Escamilla-Guerrero, David
  • Kosack, Edward
  • Ward, Zachary

Abstract

Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.

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  • Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2025. "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:176:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000665
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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