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The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Buggle
  • Thierry Mayer
  • Seyhun Orcan Sakalli
  • Mathias Thoenig

Abstract

We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level data set that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12% to 20% and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6% to 10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Buggle & Thierry Mayer & Seyhun Orcan Sakalli & Mathias Thoenig, 2023. "The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1273-1345.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:2:p:1273-1345.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjad001
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Barilari & Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2025. "The political effects of (mis)perceived immigration," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 585-605.
    2. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    4. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    5. Beine, Michel & Bierlaire, Michel & Docquier, Frédéric, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 14090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. repec:ces:ceswps:_11195 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Claude Diebolt & Joel Huesler, 2025. "France’s Economic Wound: How the Huguenot Exodus Shaped Regional Development," Working Papers of BETA 2025-48, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. Orefice, Gianluca & Rapoport, Hillel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2025. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2023. "Kinder, Küche und Kirche, Family policies and fertility in the Third Reich," Working Papers 2023-iFlame-04, IESEG School of Management.
    10. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9288, CESifo.
    11. Michelle Hansch & Jan Nimczik & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2024. "Workplace Connections and Labor Migration: The Role of Information in Shaping Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 490, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    12. Natalia Fabra & Catarina Pintassilgo & Mateus Souza, 2024. "Observed patterns of free-floating car-sharing use," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 259-297, September.
    13. Andreas B. Vortisch & Evangelos Paschalidis & Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire, 2025. "From Aspiration to Action? The Impact of Germany's 2015 Dublin III Suspension on Migration Intentions in Arab Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11952, CESifo.
    14. Adrjan, Pawel & Gromadzki, Jan, 2025. "Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions," IZA Discussion Papers 18217, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2025. "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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