IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/diedps/42021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A behavioural perspective on the drivers of migration: Studying economic and social preferences using the Gallup World Poll

Author

Listed:
  • Klöble, Katrin

Abstract

This paper addresses the self-selection of potential migrants. In particular, the study examines whether risk and time preferences explain a significant proportion in the movement heterogeneity of individuals. It is further intended to shed light on the role of social preferences (trust, altruism, reciprocity) as potential migratory determinants. By making use of a unique cross-sectional data set on migration intentions (Gallup World Poll) and experimentally-validated preferences (the Global Preference Survey) covering 70 countries worldwide, a probit model is estimated. The empirical results provide evidence that potential migrants exhibit higher levels of risk-taking and patience than their counterparts who stay at home (the stayers). This holds true across differing countries with various cultural backgrounds and income levels. Trust and negative reciprocity are found to be significantly related to migration aspirations as well. Yet conclusive clarifications still remain necessary, providing impetuses for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Klöble, Katrin, 2021. "A behavioural perspective on the drivers of migration: Studying economic and social preferences using the Gallup World Poll," IDOS Discussion Papers 4/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diedps:42021
    DOI: 10.23661/dp4.2021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/228837/1/1745699295.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.23661/dp4.2021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernst Fehr & Simon Gächter, 2000. "Fairness and Retaliation: The Economics of Reciprocity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 159-181, Summer.
    2. Kuhnt, Jana, 2019. "Literature review: drivers of migration. Why do people leave their homes? Is there an easy answer? A structured overview of migratory determinants," IDOS Discussion Papers 9/2019, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. Jean-Louis Arcand & Linguère M'Baye, 2013. "Braving the waves: the role of time and risk preferences in illegal migration from Senegal," CERDI Working papers halshs-00855937, HAL.
    4. Kong-Pin Chen & Shin-Hwan Chiang & Siu Fai Leung, 2003. "Migration, Family, and Risk Diversification," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 323-352, April.
    5. Constant, Amelie F. & Krause-Pilatus, Annabelle & Rinne, Ulf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2010. "Economic Preferences and Attitudes of the Unemployed: Are Natives and Second Generation Migrants Alike?," IZA Discussion Papers 5380, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Michel Beine & Sara Salomone, 2013. "Network Effects in International Migration: Education versus Gender," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(2), pages 354-380, April.
    7. Matthew Kirwin & Jessica Anderson, 2018. "Identifying the Factors Driving West African Migration," West African Papers 17, OECD Publishing.
    8. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    9. Akgüç, Mehtap & Liu, Xingfei & Tani, Massimiliano & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Risk attitudes and migration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 166-176.
    10. Manchin, Miriam & Orazbayev, Sultan, 2018. "Social networks and the intention to migrate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-374.
    11. Bauernschuster, Stefan & Falck, Oliver & Heblich, Stephan & Suedekum, Jens & Lameli, Alfred, 2014. "Why are educated and risk-loving persons more mobile across regions?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 56-69.
    12. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2011. "Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, And Behavioral Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 522-550, June.
    13. Goldbach, Carina & Schlüter, Achim, 2018. "Risk aversion, time preferences, and out-migration. Experimental evidence from Ghana and Indonesia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 132-148.
    14. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    15. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 511, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Falk, A. & Becker, A. & Dohmen, T.J. & Enke, B. & Huffman, D. & Sunde, U., 2015. "The nature and predictive power of preferences: Global evidence," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    17. Mincer, Jacob, 1978. "Family Migration Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 749-773, October.
    18. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
    19. Cameron, Lisa & Chaudhuri, Ananish & Erkal, Nisvan & Gangadharan, Lata, 2009. "Propensities to engage in and punish corrupt behavior: Experimental evidence from Australia, India, Indonesia and Singapore," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 843-851, August.
    20. Yann Algan & Alberto Bisin & Alan Manning & Thierry Verdier, 2012. "Cultural Integration of Immigrants in Europe," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00812826, HAL.
    21. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny, 2018. "Risk Aversion and the Willingness to Migrate in 30 Countries," WIFO Working Papers 569, WIFO.
    22. Frédéric Docquier & Giovanni Peri & Ilse Ruyssen, 2016. "The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 12, pages 361-423, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2011. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 18-29, May.
    24. Hao, Li & Houser, Daniel & Mao, Lei & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2016. "Migrations, risks, and uncertainty: A field experiment in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PA), pages 126-140.
    25. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Xin Meng & Luigi Minale, 2023. "Risk Attitudes and Household Migration Decisions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(1), pages 112-145.
    26. Amelie F. Constant & Annabelle Krause & Ulf Rinne & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2011. "Economic preferences and attitudes of the unemployed," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(7), pages 825-851, October.
    27. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    28. Chiswick, Barry R., 1999. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected? An Economic Analysis," Working Papers 147, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    29. Klaus Nowotny, 2014. "Cross-border commuting and migration intentions: the roles of risk aversion and time preference," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    30. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David B. Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2017. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," NBER Working Papers 23943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2018. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1645-1692.
    32. Fehr, Ernst & Schmidt, Klaus M., 2006. "The Economics of Fairness, Reciprocity and Altruism - Experimental Evidence and New Theories," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, in: S. Kolm & Jean Mercier Ythier (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 615-691, Elsevier.
    33. Holger Bonin & Amelie Constant & Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Klaus Zimmermann, 2009. "Native-migrant differences in risk attitudes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1581-1586.
    34. Justina AV Fischer, 2010. "Accounting for Unobserved Country Heterogeneity in Happiness Research: Country Fixed Effects versus Region Fixed Effects," CEIS Research Paper 164, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2010.
    35. Xiushi Yang, 2000. "Determinants of Migration Intentions in Hubei Province, China: Individual versus Family Migration," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(5), pages 769-787, May.
    36. Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frederic, 2006. "The Economics of Migrants' Remittances," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, in: S. Kolm & Jean Mercier Ythier (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 1135-1198, Elsevier.
    37. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    38. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    39. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    40. Örn B. Bodvarsson & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2013. "The Economics of Immigration," Springer Books, Springer, edition 2, number 978-1-4614-2116-0, June.
    41. Falk, Armin & Hermle, Johannes, 2018. "Relationship of Gender Differences in Preferences to Economic Development and Gender Equality," IZA Discussion Papers 12059, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    42. van Dalen, H.P. & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions : Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Discussion Paper 2008-60, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    43. Matthew Rabin & Richard H. Thaler, 2013. "Anomalies: Risk aversion," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 27, pages 467-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    44. George J. Borjas, 1993. "Immigration Policy, National Origin, and Immigrant Skills: A Comparison of Canada and the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 21-44, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Theodore P. Lianos & Anastasia Pseiridis, 2011. "Remittances of Immigrants in Greece," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 340-355, May.
    46. Klaus Nowotny, 2010. "Risk Aversion, Time Preference and Cross-border Commuting and Migration Intentions," WIFO Working Papers 379, WIFO.
    47. Algan, Yann & Bisin, Alberto & Manning, Alan & Verdier, Thierry (ed.), 2012. "Cultural Integration of Immigrants in Europe," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199660094, Decembrie.
    48. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    49. Allan M. Williams & Vladimír Baláž, 2014. "Mobility, risk tolerance and competence to manage risks," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1061-1088, September.
    50. Eli Berman & Zaur Rzakhanov, 2000. "Fertility, Migration, and Altruism," NBER Working Papers 7545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Paul A. Samuelson, 1937. "A Note on Measurement of Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 155-161.
    52. Vera Mironova & Loubna Mrie & Sam Whitt, 2019. "Risk tolerance during conflict: Evidence from Aleppo, Syria," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 56(6), pages 767-782, November.
    53. Tcha, MoonJoong, 1995. "Altruism, household size and migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 441-445, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González Chapela, Jorge, 2020. "Patience goes a long way: Evidence from Spain," MPRA Paper 98711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jorge González Chapela, 2022. "Is there a patience premium on migration?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 2025-2055, October.
    3. Goldbach, Carina & Schlüter, Achim, 2018. "Risk aversion, time preferences, and out-migration. Experimental evidence from Ghana and Indonesia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 132-148.
    4. Shamsuddin, Mrittika & Katsaiti, Marina Selini & El Anshasy, Amany A., 2022. "Income rank and income concerns: What correlates with international migration intentions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 490-505.
    5. Akgüç, Mehtap & Liu, Xingfei & Tani, Massimiliano & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Risk attitudes and migration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 166-176.
    6. Hao, Li & Houser, Daniel & Mao, Lei & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2016. "Migrations, risks, and uncertainty: A field experiment in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PA), pages 126-140.
    7. Anna Katharina Raggl, 2019. "Migration intentions in CESEE: sociodemographic profiles of prospective emigrants and their motives for moving," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 49-67.
    8. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny, 2020. "Risk aversion and the willingness to migrate in 30 transition countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1463-1498, October.
    9. van der Pol, Marjon & Scott, Anthony & Irvine, Alastair, 2019. "The migration of UK trained GPs to Australia: Does risk attitude matter?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(11), pages 1093-1099.
    10. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny, 2018. "Risk Aversion and the Willingness to Migrate in 30 Countries," WIFO Working Papers 569, WIFO.
    11. Géraldine Bocqueho & Marc Deschamps & Jenny Helstroffer & Julien Jacob & Majlinda Joxhe & Ofce Observatoire Français Des Conjonctures Économiques, 2018. "The risk and refugee migration," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03607866, HAL.
    12. Schmid, Lena & Renner, Laura, 2020. "The Decision to Flee: Analyzing Gender-Specific Determinants of International Refugee Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224596, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Gröger, André, 2021. "Easy come, easy go? Economic shocks, labor migration and the family left behind," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Aleksandr Grigoryan & Knar Khachatryan, 2018. "Remittances and Emigration Intentions: Evidence from Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp626, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Sumit S. Deole & Marc Oliver Rieger, 2023. "The immigrant-native gap in risk and time preferences in Germany: levels, socio-economic determinants, and recent changes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 743-778, April.
    16. Shi, Xiaojun & Yan, Zhu, 2018. "Urbanization and risk preference in China: A decomposition of self-selection and assimilation effects," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 210-228.
    17. Aida Isabel Tavares, 2022. "Time and risk preferences among the European seniors, relationship and associated factors," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(8), pages 1283-1302, October.
    18. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    19. Roberto Roca Paz & Silke Uebelmesser, 2021. "Risk attitudes and migration decisions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 649-684, June.
    20. Hao, Li & Houser, Daniel & Mao, Lei & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2014. "A Field Study of Chinese Migrant Workers' Attitudes toward Risks, Strategic Uncertainty, and Competitiveness," IZA Discussion Papers 8227, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:diedps:42021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ditubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.