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Risk and refugee migration

Author

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  • Géraldine Bocquého

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Deschamps

    (UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])

  • Jenny Helstroffer

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Jacob

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Majlinda Joxhe

    (University of Luxembourg)

Abstract

This paper uses the experimental setup of Tanaka et al. (2010) to measure refugees' risk preferences. A sample of 206 asylum seekers was interviewed in 2017-18 in Luxembourg. Contrary to studies which focus on risk aversion in general, we analyze its components using a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) frame-work. We show that refugees exhibit particularly low levels of risk aversion compared to other populations and that CPT provides a better fit for modelling risk attitudes. Moreover, we include randomised temporary treatments provoking emotions and find a small significant impact on probability distortion. Robustness of the Tanaka et al. (2010) experimental framework is confirmed by including treatments regarding the embedding effect. Finally, we propose a theoretical model of refugee migration that integrates the insights from our experimental outcomes regarding the functional form of refugees' decision under risk and the estimated parameter values. The model is then simulated using the data from our study.

Suggested Citation

  • Géraldine Bocquého & Marc Deschamps & Jenny Helstroffer & Julien Jacob & Majlinda Joxhe, 2019. "Risk and refugee migration," Working Papers hal-02198118, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02198118
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02198118v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Géraldine Bocquého & Julien Jacob & Marielle Brunette, 2020. "Prospect theory in experiments: behaviour in loss domain and framing effects," Working Papers of BETA 2020-44, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. Michele Cantarella, 2019. "#Portichiusi: the human costs of migrant deterrence in the Mediterranean," Department of Economics 0154, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Michele Cantarella, 2019. "#Portichiusi: the human costs of migrant deterrence in the Mediterranean," HiCN Working Papers 317, Households in Conflict Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cumulative prospect theory; psychological priming; refugee migration; risk preferences; experimental economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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