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#Portichiusi: the human costs of migrant deterrence in the Mediterranean

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  • Michele Cantarella

    () (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and European Central Bank)

Abstract

Using daily data on forced migration from the IOM, I compare trends in flows and mortality across three major migration routes in the Mediterranean, analysing the effects of the introduction of rescue-deterrence policies in Italy. Controlling for exogenous shocks which affect push and pull factors in mobility, along with sea state conditions and route-day fixed effects, I find that the reduction in refugee migration flows in the Central Mediterranean has been modest, at best. At the same time, these policies have generated a permanent increase in daily mortality rates in the Central Mediterranean, having grown by more than 4 deaths per day. Finally, I investigate whether variations in mortality are sufficient to offset migration flows. Increases in mortality rates, however, are only accompanied by a short-term negative displacement effect, as migration attempts are delayed by increases in absolute mortality, rather than being prevented.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Cantarella, 2019. "#Portichiusi: the human costs of migrant deterrence in the Mediterranean," HiCN Working Papers 317, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:317
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    costs of migration; forced migration; EU refugee crisis; deterrence policies JEL Classification: F22; J15; J61; J68;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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