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Risk preferences and the decision to flee conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Ceriani,Lidia
  • Verme,Paolo

Abstract

Despite the growing numbers of forcibly displaced persons worldwide, many people living under conflict choose not to flee. Individuals face two lotteries -- staying or leaving -- characterized by two distributions of potential outcomes. This paper proposes to model the choice between these two lotteries using quantile maximization as opposed to expected utility theory. The paper posits that risk-averse individuals aim at minimizing losses by choosing the lottery with the best outcome at the lower end of the distribution, whereas risk-tolerant individuals aim at maximizing gains by choosing the lottery with the best outcome at the higher end of the distribution. Using a rich set of household and conflict panel data from Nigeria, the paper finds that risk-tolerant individuals have a significant preference for staying and risk-averse individuals have a significant preference for fleeing, in line with the predictions of the quantile maximization model. These findings are contrary to findings on economic migrants, and call for separate policies toward economic and forced migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceriani,Lidia & Verme,Paolo, 2018. "Risk preferences and the decision to flee conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8376, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8376
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekhator-Mobayode,Uche Eseosa & Hanmer,Lucia C. & Rubiano Matulevich,Eliana Carolina & Arango,Diana Jimena, 2020. "Effect of Armed Conflict on Intimate Partner Violence : Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9168, The World Bank.
    2. Jaschke Philipp & Sulin Sardoschau & Marco Tabellini, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2136, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    3. Eseosa Ekhator-Mobayode, Uche & Hanmer, Lucia C. & Rubiano-Matulevich, Eliana & Jimena Arango, Diana, 2022. "The effect of armed conflict on intimate partner violence: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Adam Rose & Shingo Nagamatsu & Bess Djavadi, 2025. "Toward a Theory of Population Return from Disasters: A Synthesis and Extension of Research Advances," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 209-233, July.
    5. Bocquého, Géraldine & Deschamps, Marc & Helstroffer, Jenny & Jacob, Julien & Joxhe, Majlinda, 2023. "Modelling refugee migration under cognitive biases: Experimental evidence and policy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Tefera Getachew Dagnachew, 2023. "The effect of internal forced displacement on small and medium enterprises in the host community, in case of Amhara region, Ethiopia," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Di Maio, Michele & Leone Sciabolazza, Valerio & Molini, Vasco, 2023. "Migration in Libya: A spatial network analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Jaschke, Philipp & Sardoschau, Sulin & Tabellini, Marco, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Elanga Mendogo, Daniel Joël & Bocquého, Géraldine, 2024. "Risk preferences and refugee migration to Europe: An experimental analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Issifou,Ismael, 2020. "Understanding Decisions Made on Asylum Applications in Host Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9153, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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