Toward a Theory of Population Return from Disasters: A Synthesis and Extension of Research Advances

This paper synthesizes recent advances in the literature on the economics of population return following disasters as a step toward eventual complete conceptual and empirical frameworks of analysis. We first compile a comprehensive set of relevant background conditions and key factors affecting post-disaster population return. We combine these various aspects to outline how an expected utility framework can incorporate them. Because of the human, spatial and temporal dimensions of return, we place an emphasis on motivations, perceptions, risk context, and adaptive behavior. The framework is primarily intended to provide a guide for future empirical studies of population return by identifying the potential influence of major causal factors that will enter into an individual’s return decision. We also illustrate how it can serve as a useful framework for policy analysis.