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Relocation, Retreat, and the Rising Sea Level: A Simulation of Aggregate Outcomes in Escambia County, Florida

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Jee KIM

    (Korea Environment Institute)

  • Brigitte WALDORF

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, USA)

  • Juan SESMERO

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, USA)

Abstract

Using data for a flood-prone county in Florida, this paper analyzes the effects of sea-level rise on migration decisions and destination choices. The data are retrieved from parcel-level tax records, utilizing a name-matching procedure, enriched with synthetic population techniques to generate salient socio-economic attributes of movers and stayers. We find that in the years following a major flood event, households with high perceived risks have elevated migration propensities. We also find that households making ad hoc decisions on retreating from rising waters will in fact stay close to the hazard prone areas. This may eventually necessitate a further retreat, including a costly move.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Jee KIM & Brigitte WALDORF & Juan SESMERO, 2020. "Relocation, Retreat, and the Rising Sea Level: A Simulation of Aggregate Outcomes in Escambia County, Florida," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 31-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:51:y:2020:p:31-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Jessica Eise & Kenneth Alan Foster (ed.), 2018. "How to Feed the World," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-61091-885-5, December.
    5. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "Author Correction: New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-2, December.
    6. Mathew E. Hauer, 2017. "Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 321-325, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sea-level rise ; Retreat ; Migration propensities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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