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Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Sem Duijndam

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

  • W. Botzen

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

  • Liselotte Hagedoorn

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

  • Marijn Ton

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

  • Jens de Bruijn

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

  • Silvina Carretero

    (CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires])

  • Jeanne Dachary-Bernard

    (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Bénédicte Rulleau

    (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Jeroen Aerts

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

Abstract

Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood riskwill havemajor impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sem Duijndam & W. Botzen & Liselotte Hagedoorn & Marijn Ton & Jens de Bruijn & Silvina Carretero & Jeanne Dachary-Bernard & Bénédicte Rulleau & Jeroen Aerts, 2025. "Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change," Post-Print hal-05189058, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05189058
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05189058v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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