IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp11834.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Brück, Tilman

    () (ISDC - International Security and Development Center)

  • Dunker, Kai M.

    (ISDC - International Security and Development Center)

  • Ferguson, Neil T.N.

    () (ISDC - International Security and Development Center)

  • Meysonnat, Aline

    () (UNU-MERIT)

  • Nillesen, Eleonora

    () (UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

Violent conflict is a well-recognised driver of forced migration but literature does not usually consider the pull factors that might also cause irregular movements. In turn, the decision to leave and of where to go are rarely considered separately. This is in contrast to literature on regular international migration, which considers both push and pull factors. We contribute to these literatures by studying bilateral forced migration from multiple countries of origin to 28 European countries in the years either side of two "migration crises" – the wars in the Balkans and the Arab Spring. We pay attention to dynamics by analysing lagged flows and stocks of forced migrants and modelling their spatial distribution. We find that these partial adjustment and network effects are key pull factors, with employment rate in the destination country the only significant economic variable. In addition, we demonstrate that it is episodes of escalating conflict, rather than accumulated violence, that drives decisions to leave. Out-of-sample predictions indicate that if conflict in origin countries were to cease, forced migration would continue, albeit at a significantly reduced rate. Our findings suggest that past patterns of forced migration help shape future flows, that forced migration flows cannot easily be stopped by destination country policies, and that preventing conflict escalation is important for preventing forced migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Brück, Tilman & Dunker, Kai M. & Ferguson, Neil T.N. & Meysonnat, Aline & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2018. "Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11834, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp11834.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Ralph Sundberg & Erik Melander, 2013. "Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(4), pages 523-532, July.
    3. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    4. Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2009. "Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 399-418, May.
    5. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    6. Hatton, Timothy J., 2014. "The economics of international migration: A short history of the debate," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 43-50.
    7. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
    8. Ilse Ruyssen & Gerdie Everaert & Glenn Rayp, 2014. "Determinants and dynamics of migration to OECD countries in a three-dimensional panel framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 175-197, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced migration; refugees; displacement; conflict; Arab Spring; MENA; Balkans; dynamic panel data; gravity model;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak). General contact details of provider: http://www.iza.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.