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Migration intentions in CESEE: sociodemographic profiles of prospective emigrants and their motives for moving

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  • Anna Katharina Raggl

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Abstract

What are the characteristics of prospective emigrants from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE)? How many people intend to move? We use data from the 2017 wave of the OeNB Euro Survey to study migration intentions among individuals in CESEE. Our descriptive findings suggest that 8.3% of individuals aged 25 to 64 have the intention to move abroad within the next year. Migration intentions are considerably more common among young people and men. In most of the countries, we do not find significant differences related to educational attainment. The prevalence of migration intentions varies considerably across countries: In non-EU CESEE countries migration intentions are more widespread on average than in CESEE EU countries. Probit estimations confirm our descriptive findings. They further highlight that individual unemployment is a robust predictor of migration intentions in CESEE, while household income is not significantly related to migration intentions. The level of regional development plays a key role in shaping migration intentions, and so do (direct and indirect) networks and trust in institutions. Finally, we find that the level of regional economic development also influences the magnitude of the push effect of individual unemployment. For individuals living in depressed regions, the positive correlation between unemployment and migration intentions is higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Katharina Raggl, 2019. "Migration intentions in CESEE: sociodemographic profiles of prospective emigrants and their motives for moving," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 49-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2019:i:q1/19:b:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration intentions; individual-level data; probit; principal component analysis; CESEE;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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