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The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Mejía

    (Department of Economics, Universidad de los Andes)

  • Mounu Prem

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario)

  • Juan F. Vargas

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario)

Abstract

Well-intended policies often have negative unintended consequences if they fail to foresee the different ways in which individuals may respond to the new set of incentives. When widespread and persistent, these may lead to a net reduction of social welfare. Focusing on the case of anti-drug policies, in this paper we show that the recent unprecedented surge in the growing of illicit coca crops in Colombia was the result of a naive and untimely policy announcement during peace negotiations between the government and the FARC guerrillas. On May 2014, the parties’ peace delegations issued a press release announcing that coca-growing farmers would receive material incentives for voluntary crop substitution once a final agreement had been reached. To evaluate the anticipation effect of this announcement we exploit the cross sectional variation on both the cost advantage of growing coca (using an ecological measure of coca suitability) and the expected benefits of doing so (using a predicted measure of where the material benefits would have been targeted). Coca plantations levels remained high even after the implementation of the announced incentives’ scheme. We explain this persistence by documenting that the surge in coca growing is differentially higher in areas with presence illegal armed groups, that benefited financially from availability of a key input in the drug trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Mejía & Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas, 2019. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," HiCN Working Papers 318, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Battiston & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie & Paolo Pinotti, 2022. "Fueling Organized Crime: The Mexican War on Drugs and Oil Thefts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0286, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Nino, Gustavo & Baylis, Kathy & Crost, Benjamin, 2022. "Conflict and Small-scale Investment: Evidence from Colombia Peace Agreement," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322323, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. German Orbegozo, 2021. "Consequences of violence against social leaders in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19320, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    5. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 18468, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Ivan D. Lobo & Maria Alejandra Vélez, 2020. "From strong leadership to active community engagement: effective resistance to illicit economies in Afro Colombian collective territories," Documentos CEDE 17908, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coca growing; Drug war; Anticipation effects; Policy announcement; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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