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Emigration and Wages: The EU Enlargement Experiment

  • Benjamin Elsner

    ()

    (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

This paper studies the impact of a large emigration wave on real wages in the source country. Following EU enlargement in 2004, a large share of the workforce of the Central and Eastern Europe emigrated to Western Europe. Using data from Lithuania for the calibration of a factor demand model I show that emigration had a significant short-run impact on real wages in the source country. In particular, emigration led to a change in the wage distribution between young and old workers. The wages of young workers increased by 6%, whereas the wages of old workers decreased by around 1%. On the contrary, I find no effect on the wage distribution between workers of different education levels.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp379.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp379
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  1. Manacorda, Marco & Manning, Alan & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 2006. "The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 2352, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Ray Barrell & John FitzGerald & Rebecca Riley, 2007. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Papers WP203, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Yann Algan & Christian Dustmann & Albrecht Glitz & Alan Manning, 2010. "The Economic Situation of First and Second-Generation Immigrants in France, Germany and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(542), pages F4-F30, 02.
  5. Benjamin Elsner, 2010. "Does Emigration Benefit the Stayers? The EU Enlargement as a Natural Experiment. Evidence from Lithuania," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp326, IIIS.
  6. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," NBER Working Papers 3927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gordon H. Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2007. "The Great Mexican Emigration," NBER Working Papers 13675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Brunello, Giorgio & Crivellaro, Elena & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2010. "Lost in Transition? The Returns to Education Acquired under Communism 15 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall," IZA Discussion Papers 5409, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Abdurrahman Aydemir & George J. Borjas, 2010. "Attenuation Bias in Measuring the Wage Impact of Immigration," NBER Working Papers 16229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Caroline Halls, 2010. "Assessing the Fiscal Costs and Benefits of A8 Migration to the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-41, 03.
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  12. Catia Batista, 2007. "Joining the EU: Capital Flows, Migration and Wages," Economics Series Working Papers 342, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
  14. Jason Gagnon, 2011. "“Stay With Us?” The Impact of Emigration on Wages in Honduras," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 300, OECD Publishing.
  15. Herbert Brücker & Elke J. Jahn, 2009. "Migration and Wage-Setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration," Kiel Working Papers 1502, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  16. Francesco D'Amuri & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2008. "The Labor Market Impact of Immigration in Western Germany in the 1990's," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 687, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Alan Barrett & Adele Bergin & David Duffy, 2006. "The Labour Market Characteristics and Labour Market Impacts of Immigrants in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 1-26.
  18. Barrett, Alan & Duffy, David, 2007. "Are Ireland’s Immigrants Integrating into its Labour Market?," IZA Discussion Papers 2838, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Abdurrahman Aydemir & George J. Borjas, 2007. "Cross-Country Variation in the Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 663-708, 06.
  20. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
  21. DavidG. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2009. "Fear, Unemployment and Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages F136-F182, 02.
  22. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Long-Run Substitutability Between More and Less Educated Workers: Evidence from U.S. States, 1950-1990," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 652-663, November.
  23. Mishra, Prachi, 2007. "Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 180-199, January.
  24. Hazans, Mihails & Philips, Kaia, 2011. "The Post-Enlargement Migration Experience in the Baltic Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5878, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  25. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 1997. "Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis," Staff Report 239, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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