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The Slope of the Phillips Curve for Service Prices in Japan: Regional Panel Data Approach

Author

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  • Yui Kishaba

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Tatsushi Okuda

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve for service prices in Japan using prefecture-level panel data, where we control the impact of inflation expectations on inflation by including time-fixed effects instead of proxies for inflation expectations. Our estimates indicate the flattening of the slope of the Phillips curve for the majority of seven subgroups in services since the 2000s. We also examine for any changes in the slope of the Phillips curve in the 2010s and during the Covid-19 pandemic, but observe no clear evidence of such changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Yui Kishaba & Tatsushi Okuda, 2023. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve for Service Prices in Japan: Regional Panel Data Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp23e08
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hasui, Kohei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap: Evaluations for Japan’s monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Kishaba, Yui & Okuda, Tatsushi, 2025. "The slope of the Phillips curve for service prices in Japan: Regional panel data approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Arisa Chantaraboontha, 2026. "Revisiting Thailand’s Phillips Curves: A Granular Panel Data Approach," ISER Discussion Paper 1303, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.

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    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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