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Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Gagliardone
  • Mark Gertler
  • Simone Lenzu
  • Joris Tielens

Abstract

We develop a unified approach to studying cost-price dynamics in the cross-section of firms in order to jointly explain the time series of aggregate inflation and the frequency of price changes, both during normal times and inflation surges. A key novelty is the use of microdata on firms’ prices and production costs to construct an empirical measure of price gaps—the deviation between a firm’s listed and optimal price. Conditional on the path of aggregate cost shocks extracted from the data, a state-dependent pricing model with strategic complementarities accounts well for both the linear cost-price dynamics of the pre-pandemic period and the nonlinear increase in inflation and frequency of price adjustment that followed.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler & Simone Lenzu & Joris Tielens, 2025. "Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges," NBER Working Papers 33478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33478
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    Cited by:

    1. Karadi, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo & Pasten, Ernesto & Thaler, Dominik, 2024. "Strike while the Iron is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy under State-Dependent Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 19339, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Erwan Gautier & Cristina Conflitti & Daniel Enderle & Ludmila Fadejeva & Alex Grimaud & Eduardo Gutiérrez & Valentin Jouvanceau & Jan-Oliver Menz & Alari Paulus & Pavlos Petroulas & Pau Roldan-Blanco , 2026. "Consumer price stickiness in the euro area during an inflation surge," Working Papers 2608, Banco de España.
    3. Kishaba, Yui & Okuda, Tatsushi, 2025. "The slope of the Phillips curve for service prices in Japan: Regional panel data approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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