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Strike while the iron is hot – optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Karadi, Peter
  • Nakov, Anton
  • Nuño, Galo
  • Pasten, Ernesto
  • Thaler, Dominik

Abstract

We characterize optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing. The framework gives rise to nonlinear inflation dynamics: The flexibility of the price level increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency of price changes. In response to large cost-push shocks, optimal policy leverages the lower sacrifice ratio to curb inflation. When faced with total factor productivity shocks, an efficient disturbance, the optimal policy commits to strict price stability. The optimal long-run inflation rate is just above zero. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Karadi, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo & Pasten, Ernesto & Thaler, Dominik, 2025. "Strike while the iron is hot – optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing," Working Paper Series 3068, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253068
    Note: 1871516
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    large shocks; nonlinear Phillips curve; optimal monetary policy; state-dependent pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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