The price adjustment hazard function: Evidence from high inflation periods

The price adjustment hazard function - the probability of a good’s price changing as a function of its price misalignment - enables the examination of the relationship between price stickiness and monetary non-neutrality without specifying a micro-founded model, as discussed by Caballero and Engel (1993a, 2007). Using the micro data underlying the U.S. Consumer Price Index going back to the 1970s, we estimate the hazard function relying on empirical patterns from high and low inflation periods. We find that the relation between inflation and higher moments of the price change distribution is particularly informative for the shape of the hazard function. Our estimated hazard function is relatively flat with positive values at zero. It implies weak price selection and a high degree of monetary non-neutrality: about 60% of the degree implied by the Calvo model, and much higher than what menu cost models imply. In addition, our estimated function is asymmetric: price increases are considerably more likely to occur than price decreases of the same magnitude.