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Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks

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  • Karadi, Peter
  • Reiff, Adam

Abstract

How do frictions in price setting influence monetary non-neutrality? We revisit this classic question in a quantitative menu cost model with multi-product firms that face idiosyncratic shocks with unsynchronized stochastic volatility. The model matches the unconditional distribution of price changes and successfully predicts new evidence on pricing responses to large value-added tax shocks. In particular, it captures both the exploding fraction of price changes and the shape of their conditional distribution, outperforming alternative models. The model generates near money neutrality even to small nominal shocks.

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  • Karadi, Peter & Reiff, Adam, 2014. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10138
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    2. Edward S. Knotek & Doron Sayag & Avichai Snir, 2019. "The Effects of Price Endings on Price Rigidity: Evidence from VAT Changes," Working Papers 201924, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Mikael Carlsson, 2017. "Microdata Evidence on the Empirical Importance of Selection Effects in Menu‐Cost Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1803-1830, December.
    4. Bart Hobijn & Fernanda Nechio, 2019. "Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 799-833.
    5. Fernando Álvarez & Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, 2020. "The Passthrough of Large-cost Shocks in an Inflationary Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 2, pages 007-048, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    7. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    8. Isaac Baley & J. Andrés Blanco, 2016. "Menu costs, uncertainty cycles, and the propagation of nominal shocks," Economics Working Papers 1532, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Matthew Klepacz, 2018. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Paulie, Charlotte, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce the Dispersion of Price Setters’ Inflation Expectations?," Working Paper Series 2018:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Matthew Klepacz, 2021. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1316, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Raphael Auer & Ariel Burstein & Sarah M. Lein, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 652-686, February.
    13. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.
    14. Fernando Alvarez & Andy Neumeyer, 2019. "The Pass-Through of Large Cost Shocks in an Inflationary Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 844, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Francesca Vinci & Omar Licandro, 2020. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Discussion Papers 2020/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    16. Gee Hee Hong & Ernesto Pasten & Matthew Klepacz & Raphael Schoenle, 2019. "From Micro to Macro: A New Methodology to Discriminate Among Models," 2019 Meeting Papers 906, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Paulie, Charlotte, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce the Dispersion of Price Setters’ Inflation Expectations?," Working Paper Series 370, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Carlsson, Mikael, 2014. "Selection Effects in Producer-Price Setting," Working Paper Series 2014:6, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    19. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely & Gyorgy Molnar & Tibor Szabo, 2017. "Expenditure responses, policy interventions and heterogeneous welfare effects in Hungary during the 2000s," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1704, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    20. Gee Hee Hong & Matthew Klepacz & Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle, 2020. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 875, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. de la Porte Simonsen, Lasse & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics and Price Flexibility in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 13027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano & Simonsen, Lasse P., 2019. "Time-varying Price Flexibility and Inflation Dynamics," EMF Research Papers 28, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy transmission; price change distribution; state-dependent pricing; value-added tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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