IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v11y2019i3p111-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Karadi
  • Adam Reiff

Abstract

We document that the aggregate price level responds flexibly and asymmetrically to large positive and negative value-added tax changes. We present a price-setting model with menu costs, trend inflation, and fat-tailed product-level shocks that is consistent with these observations. The model predicts a flexible price-level response to standard monetary policy shocks because it anticipates a large number of firms on the verge of price adjustment and far from their optimal prices when the shock hits.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:111-46
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20160054
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20160054.data
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20160054.appx
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20160054.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kehoe, Patrick & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2015. "Prices are sticky after all," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 35-53.
    2. Etienne Gagnon & David López-Salido & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 235-281.
    3. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
    4. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    5. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    7. Cabral, Luís & Fishman, Arthur, 2012. "Business as usual: A consumer search theory of sticky prices and asymmetric price adjustment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 371-376.
    8. Levy, Daniel & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu & Venable, Robert, 1997. "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: Direct Evidence from Large U.S. Supermarket Chains," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 791-824.
    9. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013.
    10. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2014. "Price Setting With Menu Cost for Multiproduct Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 89-135, January.
    11. Fernando E. Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Optimal Price Setting With Observation and Menu Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1909-1960.
    12. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 171-199.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    14. Costain, James & Nakov, Anton, 2011. "Distributional dynamics under smoothly state-dependent pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 646-665.
    15. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2011. "Fair Pricing," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(5), pages 952-981, October.
    16. Andrew S. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-725.
    17. Etienne Gagnon & David López-Salido, 2020. "Small Price Responses to Large Demand Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 792-828.
    18. Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(3), pages 1103-1131.
    19. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 2019. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 537-571.
    20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    21. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2019. "Optimal Sticky Prices Under Rational Inattention," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 573-617.
    22. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.
    23. Alvarez, Fernando & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lippi, Francesco, 2013. "Small and large price changes and the propagation of monetary shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Michael B. Devereux & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "State Dependent Pricing And Business Cycle Asymmetries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 281-310, February.
    25. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, June.
    26. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    27. Laurent Baudry & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Sevestre & Sylvie Tarrieu, 2007. "What do Thirteen Million Price Records have to Say about Consumer Price Rigidity?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 139-183, April.
    28. Leif Danziger, 1999. "A Dynamic Economy with Costly Price Adjustments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 878-901, September.
    29. Mark J. Zbaracki & Mark Ritson & Daniel Levy & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Managerial and Customer Costs of Price Adjustment: Direct Evidence from Industrial Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 514-533, May.
    30. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo & Josephine Smith, 2014. "How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 137-155, April.
    31. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    32. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
    33. Joseph Vavra, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Uncertainty: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," 2011 Meeting Papers 126, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Price Rigidities and Market Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 350-355, May.
    35. Rotemberg, Julio J., 2005. "Customer anger at price increases, changes in the frequency of price adjustment and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 829-852, May.
    36. Péter Gábriel & Ádám Reiff, 2010. "Price setting in Hungary-a store-level analysis," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 161-176.
    37. Saul Lach & Daniel Tsiddon, 2007. "Small price changes and menu costs," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 649-656.
    38. Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
    39. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    40. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    41. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    42. Huanxing Yang & Lixin Ye, 2008. "Search with learning: understanding asymmetric price adjustments," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(2), pages 547-564, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bart Hobijn & Fernanda Nechio, 2019. "Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 799-833.
    2. Gee Hee Hong & Matthew Klepacz & Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle, 2020. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 875, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    4. Gee Hee Hong & Ernesto Pasten & Matthew Klepacz & Raphael Schoenle, 2019. "From Micro to Macro: A New Methodology to Discriminate Among Models," 2019 Meeting Papers 906, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Francesca Vinci & Omar Licandro, 2020. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Discussion Papers 2020/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.
    7. Raphael Auer & Ariel Burstein & Sarah M. Lein, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 652-686, February.
    8. Paulie, Charlotte, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce the Dispersion of Price Setters’ Inflation Expectations?," Working Paper Series 370, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Fernando Álvarez & Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, 2020. "The Passthrough of Large-cost Shocks in an Inflationary Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 2, pages 007-048, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Carlsson, Mikael, 2014. "Selection Effects in Producer-Price Setting," Working Paper Series 2014:6, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Isaac Baley & J. Andrés Blanco, 2016. "Menu costs, uncertainty cycles, and the propagation of nominal shocks," Economics Working Papers 1532, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    12. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    13. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely & Gyorgy Molnar & Tibor Szabo, 2017. "Expenditure responses, policy interventions and heterogeneous welfare effects in Hungary during the 2000s," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1704, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    14. Hobijn, Bart & Nechio, Fernanda & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2021. "Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Fernando Alvarez & Andy Neumeyer, 2019. "The Pass-Through of Large Cost Shocks in an Inflationary Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 844, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Edward S. Knotek & Doron Sayag & Avichai Snir, 2019. "The Effects of Price Endings on Price Rigidity: Evidence from VAT Changes," Working Papers 201924, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. de la Porte Simonsen, Lasse & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics and Price Flexibility in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 13027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano & Simonsen, Lasse P., 2019. "Time-varying Price Flexibility and Inflation Dynamics," EMF Research Papers 28, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    19. Mikael Carlsson, 2017. "Microdata Evidence on the Empirical Importance of Selection Effects in Menu‐Cost Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1803-1830, December.
    20. Matthew Klepacz, 2018. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Matthew Klepacz, 2021. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1316, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Paulie, Charlotte, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce the Dispersion of Price Setters’ Inflation Expectations?," Working Paper Series 2018:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Reiff & Peter Karadi, 2011. "Large Shocks in Menu Cost Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 884, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Costain, James & Nakov, Anton, 2015. "Precautionary price stickiness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 218-234.
    3. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2013. "Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks," EIEF Working Papers Series 1318, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Aug 2013.
    4. Isaac Baley & J. Andrés Blanco, 2016. "Menu costs, uncertainty cycles, and the propagation of nominal shocks," Economics Working Papers 1532, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Stephane Dupraz, 2017. "A Kinked-Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," 2017 Meeting Papers 387, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Emmanuel Dhyne & Jerzy Konieczny & Fabio Rumler & Patrick Sevestre, 2009. "Price rigidity in the euro area - An assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 380, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    8. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2011. "Price Adjustments in a General Model of State‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 385-406, March.
    9. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & M. Hashem Pesaran & Patrick Sevestre, 2011. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 529-540, October.
    10. Demery, David, 2012. "State-dependent pricing and the non-neutrality of money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 933-944.
    11. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ahrens, Steffen & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "State-dependence vs. timedependence: An empirical multi-country investigation of price sluggishness," Kiel Working Papers 1907, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    13. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    14. Alexander L. Wolman, 2007. "The frequency and costs of individual price adjustment," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 531-552.
    15. Andrea Stella, 2014. "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: A Structural Estimation," 2014 Meeting Papers 436, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284, Elsevier.
    17. Bartosz Mackowiak & Frank Smets, 2008. "On implications of micro price data for macro models," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Edward S. Knotek, 2010. "The roles of price points and menu costs in price rigidity," Research Working Paper RWP 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    19. Levin, Andrew & Yun, Tack, 2007. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis in a New Keynesian framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1344-1365, July.
    20. Costain, James & Nakov, Anton & Petit, Borja, 2018. "Monetary policy implications of state-dependent prices and wages," CEPR Discussion Papers 13398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:111-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.