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Inflation and price flexibility

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  • Petrella, Ivan
  • Santoro, Emiliano
  • Winkelmann, Yannik

Abstract

Using UK consumer price microdata, we report that aggregate price flexibility varies substantially over time and induces significant non-linearity in inflation. In a regime of high flexibility, the half-life of inflation drops by 50% and its volatility rises considerably. Such asymmetry arises naturally from state-dependent pricing, of which we find ample evidence in the data, particularly following the Great Recession. Neglecting this property may lead to a systematic underprediction of inflation, as seen in the post-pandemic inflation surge. Tracking real-time movements in price flexibility is crucial for assessing inflation dynamics and informing monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano & Winkelmann, Yannik, 2025. "Inflation and price flexibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s0014292125001060
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105056
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    • Petrella Ivan & Santoro Emiliano & Winkelmann Yannik, 2025. "Inflation and Price Flexibility," Working papers 099, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.

    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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