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Consumers' Price Beliefs, Central Bank Communication, and Inflation Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Kosuke Aoki

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Hibiki Ichiue

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Tatsushi Okuda

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

Many developed economies in recent years have been characterized by a tight labor market and a low inflation environment, a phenomenon referred to as "missing inflation." To explain this phenomenon, we develop a dispersed information model in which consumers' search for cheaper prices affects firms' pricing behavior. The model shows that firms are reluctant to pass through cost increases because they fear a disproportionate decline in their sales. A history of low and stable inflation amplifies this effect by decreasing consumers' inflation beliefs. In this case, enhancement of the central bank's communication regarding its inflation target more firmly anchors consumers' inflation beliefs and makes the Phillips curve flatter, while enhancement of the central bank's communication about the current aggregate price level has the opposite effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosuke Aoki & Hibiki Ichiue & Tatsushi Okuda, 2019. "Consumers' Price Beliefs, Central Bank Communication, and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp19e14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ueda, Kozo, 2023. "Duopolistic competition and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 70-85.
    2. Go Fujii & Shogo Nakano & Kosuke Takatomi, 2025. "Households' Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Formation: The Role of Past Experience and Inflation Regimes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    3. Shuichiro Ikeda & Haruhiko Inatsugu & Yui Kishaba & Takuji Kondo & Kenichi Sakura & Kosuke Takatomi & Takashi Nakazawa & Kotone Yamada, "undated". "Inflation in Japan: Changes during the Pandemic and Issues for the Future," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    4. Yui Kishaba & Tatsushi Okuda, 2023. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve for Service Prices in Japan: Regional Panel Data Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-8, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    missing inflation; imperfect information; price search; communication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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