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Can Supply Shocks Be Inflationary with a Flat Phillips Curve?

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  • Jean-Paul L'Huillier
  • Gregory Phelan

Abstract

Not in standard models. With conventional pricing frictions, imposing a flat Phillips curve also imposes a price level that is rigid with respect to supply shocks. In the New Keynesian model, price markup shocks need to be several orders of magnitude bigger than other shocks in order to fit the data, leading to unreasonable assessments of the magnitude of the increase in costs during inflationary episodes. To account for the facts, we propose a strategic microfoundation of shock-dependent price stickiness: prices are sticky with respect to demand shocks but flexible with respect to supply shocks. This friction is demand-intrinsic, in line with narrative accounts for the imperfect adjustment of prices. Firms can credibly justify a price increase due to a rise in costs, whereas it is harder to do so when demand increases. Inflation from supply shocks is efficient and does not justify a monetary policy response.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Can Supply Shocks Be Inflationary with a Flat Phillips Curve?," Working Papers 23-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:97528
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2011. "Price setting in forward-looking customer markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 220-233.
    2. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
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    4. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
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    6. Cosmin Ilut & Rosen Valchev & Nicolas Vincent, 2020. "Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing Under Demand Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 1899-1938, September.
    7. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
    8. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10495.
    9. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2023. "Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics," Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank.
    10. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ginters Buss & Guido Traficante, 2025. "The Return of Inflation: Look-Through Policy Under Incomplete Information," Working Papers 2025/02, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2025. "Inflation is a Supply Phenomenon," Working Papers 137, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    3. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost-push shocks; shock dependence; price stickiness; output-inflation trade-off;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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