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Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges

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Abstract

We develop a unified approach to studying cost-price dynamics in the cross-section of firms in order to jointly explain the time series of aggregate inflation and the frequency of price changes, both during normal times and inflation surges. A key novelty is the use of microdata on firms’ prices and production costs to construct an empirical measure of price gaps—the deviation between a firm’s listed and optimal price. Conditional on the path of aggregate cost shocks extracted from the data, a state-dependent pricing model with strategic complementarities accounts well for both the linear cost-price dynamics of the pre-pandemic period and the nonlinear increase in inflation and frequency of price adjustment that followed.

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  • Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler & Simone Lenzu & Joris Tielens, 2026. "Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges," Staff Reports 1195, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:103257
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1195
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    3. Ascari, Guido & Carrier, Alexandre & Gasteiger, Emanuel & Grimaud, Alex & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2025. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, when Phillips Curves ... are Curves," CEPR Discussion Papers 20489, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Cristina Conflitti & Daniel Enderle & Ludmila Fadejeva & Erwan Gautier & Alex Grimaud & Eduardo Gutiérrez & Valentin Jouvanceau & Jan-Oliver Menz & Alari Paulus & Pavlos Petroulas & Pau Roldan-Blanco , 2026. "Consumer Price Stickiness in the Euro Area During an Inflation Surge (Erwan Gautier, Cristina Conflitti, Daniel Enderle, Ludmila Fadejeva, Alex Grimaud, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Valentin Jouvanceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Alari Paulus, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Rold," Working Papers 273, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Adnan Velic, 2026. "International Comovements and Persistence in Irish Inflation: A Nonlinear Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep1026, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Matthew Fink & Jonathan Hambur, 2026. "Shifts in Australian Price-setting Behaviour around Large Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2026-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Karadi, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo & Pasten, Ernesto & Thaler, Dominik, 2024. "Strike while the Iron is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy under State-Dependent Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 19339, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Ascari, Guido & Bijnens, Gert & Bobasu, Alina & Colciago, Andrea & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Elfsbacka-Schmöller, Michaela & Grimaud, Alex & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Zlobins, Andrejs & Audzei, Volha, 2026. "Monetary policy transmission and structural changes," Occasional Paper Series 393, European Central Bank.
    9. Simone Lenzu, 2026. "Artificial Intelligence and Monetary Policy: A Framework and Perspective on Cyclical Transmission, Structural Transition, and Financial Stability," Staff Reports 1192, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Kishaba, Yui & Okuda, Tatsushi, 2025. "The slope of the Phillips curve for service prices in Japan: Regional panel data approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Gebauer, Stefan & Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo & Osbat, Chiara & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Paulus, Alari & Quintana, Javier & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Palazzolo, Alberto, 2026. "The propagation of shocks across the production network and implications for monetary policy," Occasional Paper Series 392, European Central Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

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