IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cap/wpaper/052016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts

Author

Listed:
  • Gonçalo Faria

    () (Católica Porto Business School and CEGE, Universidade Católica Portuguesa)

  • Fabio Verona

    () (Bank of Finland and CEF.UP)

Abstract

We forecast stock market returns by applying, within a Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts framework, a frequency decomposition of several predictors of stock returns. The method delivers statistically and economically significant improvements over historical mean forecasts, with monthly out- of-sample R2 of 3.27% and annual utility gains of 403 basis points. The strong performance of this method comes from its ability to isolate the frequencies of the predictors with the highest predictive power from the noisy parts, and from the fact that the frequency-decomposed predictors carry complementary information that captures both the long-term trend and the higher frequency movements of stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 05, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
  • Handle: RePEc:cap:wpaper:052016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.feg.porto.ucp.pt/docentes/repec/WP/052016_Faria_Verona_Forecasting_stock_market.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James Bernard Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(4), pages 489-508, August.
    2. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    4. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 32/2016, Bank of Finland.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Xu, Lai, 2015. "Tail risk premia and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-134.
    6. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    7. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    8. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
    9. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-80, February.
    10. Bryan Kelly & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Market Expectations in the Cross-Section of Present Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1721-1756, October.
    11. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    13. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    14. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    15. António Rua, 2011. "A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 666-678, November.
    16. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    17. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    18. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.
    19. Juliana Malagon & David Moreno & Rosa Rodr�guez, 2015. "Time horizon trading and the idiosyncratic risk puzzle," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 327-343, February.
    20. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    21. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    22. Jaisimha Manchaldore & Imon Palit & Oleg Soloviev, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition for intra-day volume dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 917-930.
    23. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    24. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    25. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    26. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    27. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    28. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and inflation: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 435-444, June.
    29. Rua, António, 2010. "Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 685-691, June.
    30. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    31. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    32. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    33. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
    34. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    35. Ilan Cooper & Richard Priestley, 2013. "The World Business Cycle and Expected Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 1029-1064.
    36. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
    37. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
    38. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    39. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
    40. Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 49-71, March.
    41. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
    42. Don Galagedera & Elizabeth Maharaj, 2008. "Wavelet timescales and conditional relationship between higher-order systematic co-moments and portfolio returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 201-215.
    43. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    44. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
    45. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    46. Yongmiao Hong & Chihwa Kao, 2004. "Wavelet-Based Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form in Panel Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1519-1563, September.
    47. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2016. "Editor's Choice … and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 5-68.
    48. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Realized wavelet-based estimation of integrated variance and jumps in the presence of noise," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 1347-1364, August.
    49. Rua, António & Nunes, Luís C., 2009. "International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 632-639, September.
    50. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    51. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
    52. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
    53. Fulvio Ortu & Andrea Tamoni & Claudio Tebaldi, 2013. "Long-Run Risk and the Persistence of Consumption Shocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2876-2915.
    54. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    55. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    56. Luiz Renato Lima & Fanning Meng, 2017. "Out‐of‐Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 877-895, June.
    57. Rua, António, 2017. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 581-590.
    58. Mele, Antonio, 2007. "Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 446-478, November.
    59. Yi Xue & Ramazan Gen�ay & Stephen Fagan, 2013. "Jump detection with wavelets for high-frequency financial time series," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1427-1444, July.
    60. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
    61. Gençay, Ramazan & Signori, Daniele, 2015. "Multi-scale tests for serial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 62-80.
    62. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2005. "Multiscale systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, February.
    63. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 32/2016, Bank of Finland.
    2. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "The volatility surprise of leading cryptocurrencies: Transitory and permanent linkages," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    3. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian & Verona, Fabio, 2019. "Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies," Research Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland.
    5. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & David Roubaud & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6333-6349, December.
    6. Czudaj, Robert L., 2019. "Crude oil futures trading and uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 793-811.
    7. Risse, Marian, 2019. "Combining wavelet decomposition with machine learning to forecast gold returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 601-615.
    8. Kuntz, Laura-Chloé, 2020. "Beta dispersion and market timing," Discussion Papers 46/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    10. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
    11. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread," Research Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland.
    12. Zhifeng Dai & Huiting Zhou, 2020. "Prediction of Stock Returns: Sum-of-the-Parts Method and Economic Constraint Method," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-13, January.
    13. Lei Xu & Takuji Kinkyo & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Predicting Currency Crises: A Novel Approach Combining Random Forests and Wavelet Transform," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(4), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
    15. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    16. Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Commodity futures and a wavelet-based risk assessment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 554(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    predictability; stock returns; equity premium; asset allocation; frequency domain; wavelets;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cap:wpaper:052016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Goncalves). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/feucppt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.