Seasonal asset allocation: Evidence from mutual fund flows
Over the past 30 years, mutual funds have become the dominant vehicle through which individual investors prepare for retirement via defined contribution plans. Further, money market mutual funds, which hold $2.7 trillion as of September 2013, are now a major part of the cash economy in the U.S. Accordingly, the flow of money to and from different mutual fund categories (e.g., equities vs. money funds) increasingly reflects the sentiment or risk aversion of the general population. In this study, we analyze flows between different categories of mutual funds, and find strong evidence of a seasonality in risk aversion of individual investors. Specifically, we find that aggregate investor flow data reveals an investor preference for U.S. money market and government bond mutual funds in the autumn, and equity funds in the spring, controlling for the influence of seasonality in past performance, advertising, liquidity needs, and capital gains overhang on fund flows. This movement of large amounts of money between fund categories is correlated with a proxy for variation in investor risk aversion across the seasons, consistent with investors' revealed preferences for safer investments in the fall, and riskier investments in the spring. We find similar evidence in Canadian mutual fund flows, and in flows among Australian funds, where the seasons are six months out of phase relative to Canada and the U.S. While prior evidence regarding the influence of seasonally changing risk aversion on financial markets relies on seasonal patterns in asset returns, we provide the first direct trade-related evidence.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
Web page: http://cfr-cologne.de/english/version06/html/home.php
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gibson, Scott & Safieddine, Assem & Titman, Sheridan, 2000. "Tax-Motivated Trading and Price Pressure: An Analysis of Mutual Fund Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 369-386, September.
- Ian Garrett & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2004.
"Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk,"
2004-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Garrett, Ian & Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A., 2005. "Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 291-316, March.
- Woodrow T. Johnson & James M. Poterba, 2008. "Taxes and Mutual Fund Inflows Around Distribution Dates," NBER Working Papers 13884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003.
"Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, 06.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2005.
"Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media,"
- Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Do ADS Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(1), pages 197-227, 02.
- Franklin Edwards & Xin Zhang, 1998. "Mutual Funds and Stock and Bond Market Stability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 257-282, June.
- Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
- Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
- MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985.
"Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
- James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983. "Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties," Working Papers 537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Murat Aydogdu & Jay W. Wellman, 2011. "The Effects of Advertising on Mutual Fund Flows: Results from a New Database," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 785-809, 09.
- Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2011. "The Price Pressure of Aggregate Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 585-603, April.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Karceski, Jason, 2002. "Returns-Chasing Behavior, Mutual Funds, and Beta's Death," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 559-594, December.
- Jennifer Huang & Kelsey D. Wei & Hong Yan, 2007. "Participation Costs and the Sensitivity of Fund Flows to Past Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1273-1311, 06.
- Sciortino, John J. & Huston, John H. & Spencer, Roger W., 1987. "Perceived risk and the precautionary demand for money," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 339-346, September.
- Prem C. Jain & Joanna Shuang Wu, 2000. "Truth in Mutual Fund Advertising: Evidence on Future Performance and Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 937-958, 04.
- Johnson, Woodrow T., 2010. "Who incentivizes the mutual fund manager, new or old shareholders?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 143-168, April.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Levi, Maurice D, 1973. "Errors in the Variables Bias in the Presence of Correctly Measured Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 985-86, September.
- Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.