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A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns

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  • Kamstra, Mark J.
  • Kramer, Lisa A.
  • Levi, Maurice D.

Abstract

In questioning Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi’s (2003) finding of an economically and statistically significant seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect, Kelly and Meschke (2010) make errors of commission and omission. They misrepresent their empirical results, claiming that the SAD effect arises due to a “mechanically induced” effect that is non-existent, labeling the SAD effect a “turn-of-year” effect (when in fact their models and ours separately control for turn-of-year effects), and ignoring coefficient-estimate patterns that strongly support the SAD effect. Our analysis of their data shows, even using their low-power statistical tests, there is significant international evidence supporting the SAD effect. Employing modern, panel/time-series statistical methods strengthens the case dramatically. Additionally, Kelly and Meschke represent the finance, psychology, and medical literatures in misleading ways, describing some findings as opposite to those reported by the researchers themselves, and choosing selective quotes that could easily lead readers to a distorted understanding of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:934-956
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.010
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    1. Anthony Heyes & Matthew Neidell & Soodeh Saberian, 2016. "The Effect of Air Pollution on Investor Behavior: Evidence from the S&P 500," NBER Working Papers 22753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
    3. Khaled, Mohammed S. & Keef, Stephen P., 2013. "Seasonal affective disorder: onset and recovery," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 136-139.
    4. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    5. Guo, Biao & Luo, Xingguo & Zhang, Ziding, 2014. "Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 362-368.
    6. Dan Gabriel Anghel, 2018. "Market-Level Sports Sentiment: The case of the Romanian Frontier Stock Market," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 10(2), pages 095-0108, December.
    7. Kliger, Doron & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-137.
    8. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    9. Steven D. Dolvin & Stephanie A. Fernhaber, 2014. "Seasonal Affective Disorder and IPO underpricing: implications for young firms," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-68, January.
    10. Berger, Theo & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Improving daily Value-at-Risk forecasts: The relevance of short-run volatility for regulatory quality assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 30-46.
    11. Jing Chen & Elizabeth Demers & Baruch Lev, 2018. "Oh What a Beautiful Morning! Diurnal Influences on Executives and Analysts: Evidence from Conference Calls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5899-5924, December.
    12. Marco Bee & Debbie J. Dupuis & Luca Trapin, 2016. "US stock returns: are there seasons of excesses?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 1453-1464, September.
    13. Richards, Daniel W. & Willows, Gizelle D., 2019. "Monday mornings: Individual investor trading on days of the week and times within a day," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 105-115.
    14. Itzhak Venezia, 2018. "Lecture Notes in Behavioral Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10751, September.
    15. Gelman, Sergey & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "Time-Induced Stress Effect on Financial Decision Making in Real Markets: The Case of Traffic Congestion," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145915, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2012. "The week-of-the-year effect: Evidence from around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1963-1974.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seasonal affective disorder; SAD; Seasonal depression; Stock market cycles; Return seasonality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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