IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceco/v78y2019icp121-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Kliger, Doron
  • Qadan, Mahmoud

Abstract

Research in psychology has established that activation of religious ideas affects individuals’ behavior. We hypothesize that religious and honesty mechanisms activated on the High Holidays, the ten days before Yom Kippur, when people seek repentance, amplify people's anxiety and affect their financial decision-making. We find that returns during the High Holidays are abnormally low; implied volatility, measured by VIX and VXO, as well as realized volatility estimates, are abnormally high; and the abnormal increase in implied volatility overshoots future volatility. Using these results, we devise a simple trading rule that investors may consider to maximize returns during the High-Holidays period.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliger, Doron & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:121-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2018.12.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804318303720
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    3. Lisa A. Kramer & Mark J. Kamstra & Maurice D. Levi, 2000. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September.
    4. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Positive mood and investment decisions: Evidence from comedy movie attendance in the U.S," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 142-163.
    5. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 399-426, July.
    6. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 33-47.
    7. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    8. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-279, April.
    9. Lily Fang & Chunmei Lin & Yuping Shao, 2018. "School Holidays and Stock Market Seasonality," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 131-157, March.
    10. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    11. Stulz, Rene M. & Williamson, Rohan, 2003. "Culture, openness, and finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 313-349, December.
    12. Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
    13. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    14. Hilary, Gilles & Hui, Kai Wai, 2009. "Does religion matter in corporate decision making in America?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 455-473, September.
    15. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    16. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    17. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "People's opium? Religion and economic attitudes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 225-282, January.
    18. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan H. Mingelgrin, 2001. "The High‐Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, June.
    19. Daniel J. Benjamin & James J. Choi & Geoffrey Fisher, 2016. "Religious Identity and Economic Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 617-637, October.
    20. Noel Harding & Wen He & Steven Cahan, 2016. "Investor mood and the determinants of stock prices: an experimental analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 445-478, June.
    21. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    22. Narat Charupat & Mark J. Kamstra & Moshe A. Milevsky, 2016. "The Sluggish and Asymmetric Reaction of Life Annuity Prices to Changes in Interest Rates," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(3), pages 519-555, September.
    23. Kumar, Alok & Page, Jeremy K. & Spalt, Oliver G., 2011. "Religious beliefs, gambling attitudes, and financial market outcomes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 671-708.
    24. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2011. "Air pollution and stock returns in the US," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 374-383, June.
    25. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
    26. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    27. Dyl, Edward A & Maberly, Edwin D, 1988. " The Anomaly That Isn't There: A Comment on Friday the Thirteenth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1285-1286, December.
    28. Kelly, Patrick J. & Meschke, Felix, 2010. "Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1308-1326, June.
    29. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    30. Kelley Bergsma & Danling Jiang, 2016. "Cultural New Year Holidays and Stock Returns around the World," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, March.
    31. Seasholes, Mark S. & Wu, Guojun, 2007. "Predictable behavior, profits, and attention," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 590-610, December.
    32. Bae, Kee-Hong & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1995. "Good news, band news and international spilovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 144-144, May.
    33. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    34. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    35. L.A. Smales, 2017. "The importance of fear: investor sentiment and stock market returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(34), pages 3395-3421, July.
    36. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    37. Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 343-364, June.
    38. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2015. "Seasonal Variation in Treasury Returns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 45-115, June.
    39. Doron Kliger & Ori Levy, 2003. "Mood and Judgment of Subjective Probabilities: Evidence from the U.S. Index Option Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 7(2), pages 235-248.
    40. Robert B. Barsky & F. Thomas Juster & Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-579.
    41. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
    42. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    43. Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2003. "Mood-induced variation in risk preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 573-584, December.
    44. Guy Kaplanski & Haim Levy, 2012. "The holiday and Yom Kippur War sentiment effects: the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE)," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 1283-1298, June.
    45. Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision‐Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, April.
    46. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2016. "Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 25-42.
    47. Yuan, Tian & Gupta, Rakesh, 2014. "Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 529-537.
    48. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D. & Wermers, Russ, 2017. "Seasonal Asset Allocation: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 71-109, February.
    49. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
    50. Kolb, Robert W & Rodriguez, Ricardo J, 1987. "Friday the Thirteenth: 'Part VII'--A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1385-1387, December.
    51. Kirchmaier, Isadora & Prüfer, Jens & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2018. "Religion, moral attitudes and economic behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 282-300.
    52. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
    53. Dan Ariely & Nina Mazar, 2006. "Dishonesty in everyday life and its policy implications," Working Papers 06-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    54. Tao Shu & Johan Sulaeman & P. Eric Yeung, 2012. "Local Religious Beliefs and Mutual Fund Risk-Taking Behaviors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1779-1796, October.
    55. Jiang, Fuxiu & Jiang, Zhan & Kim, Kenneth A. & Zhang, Min, 2015. "Family-firm risk-taking: Does religion matter?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 260-278.
    56. Hong, Harrison & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2009. "The price of sin: The effects of social norms on markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 15-36, July.
    57. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    58. repec:hrv:faseco:30747160 is not listed on IDEAS
    59. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2005. "Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns--Some preliminary Irish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 337-355.
    60. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    61. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Ali, Ruhani, 2017. "Does a Muslim CEO matter in Shariah-compliant companies? Evidence from Malaysia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 126-141.
    62. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2016. "Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 23-38.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    2. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    3. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "How much happiness can we find in the U.S. fear Index?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 246-258.
    4. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    5. Wu, Qinqin & Hao, Ying & Lu, Jing, 2018. "Air pollution, stock returns, and trading activities in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 342-365.
    6. Wu, Qinqin & Chou, Robin K. & Lu, Jing, 2020. "How does air pollution-induced fund-manager mood affect stock markets in China?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. Dimitrios Kourtidis & Željko Ševic & Prodromos Chatzoglou, 2016. "Mood and stock returns: evidence from Greece," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 242-258, May.
    8. Wu, Qinin & Lu, Jing, 2020. "Air pollution, individual investors, and stock pricing in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 267-287.
    9. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2016. "Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 23-38.
    10. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    11. Donadelli, Michael & Kizys, Renatas & Riedel, Max, 2017. "Dangerous infectious diseases: Bad news for Main Street, good news for Wall Street?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 84-103.
    12. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    13. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 33-47.
    14. Al-Khazali, Osamah & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "The impact of religious practice on stock returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 172-189.
    15. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    16. Brian Lucey, 2010. "Lunar seasonality in precious metal returns?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 835-838.
    17. Gelman, Sergey & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "Time-Induced Stress Effect on Financial Decision Making in Real Markets: The Case of Traffic Congestion," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145915, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 95-112.
    19. Shafi, Kourosh & Mohammadi, Ali, 2020. "Too gloomy to invest: Weather-induced mood and crowdfunding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Jhang, Ling-Jhen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Do investor sentiment, weather and catastrophe effects improve hedging performance? Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 35-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavior; Beliefs; Decision-making; Honesty; Market anomalies; Mood; Religion; VIX; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:121-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.