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Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited

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  • Kelly, Patrick J.
  • Meschke, Felix

Abstract

Widely-cited research by Kamstra et al. (2003) argues that changes in mood resulting from Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) drive changes in investor risk aversion and cause seasonal patterns in aggregate stock returns around the world. In this paper we reexamine the so-called SAD effect by replicating and extending Kamstra et al. (2003). We study the psychological underpinnings of the SAD hypothesis and show that the time-series predictions of the SAD model do not correspond to the seasonal patterns in depression found in the general population. We also investigate the cross-sectional prediction that SAD has a greater effect on stock markets in countries where SAD is more prevalent and find no relation between the prevalence of SAD and stock returns. Finally, we document that the SAD effect is mechanically driven by an overlapping dummy-variable specification and higher returns around the turn of the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Patrick J. & Meschke, Felix, 2010. "Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1308-1326, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1308-1326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Heyes & Matthew Neidell & Soodeh Saberian, 2016. "The Effect of Air Pollution on Investor Behavior: Evidence from the S&P 500," NBER Working Papers 22753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
    3. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
    4. Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Khaled, Mohammed S. & Keef, Stephen P., 2013. "Seasonal affective disorder: onset and recovery," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 136-139.
    6. Ching-Ping Wang & Hung-Hsi Huang & Yong-Wei Chen, 2012. "Investor SAD Sentiment and Stock Returns in Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 40-57, July.
    7. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:94-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:cpn:umkdem:v:17:y:2017:p:5-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
    10. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    11. repec:wsi:qjfxxx:v:07:y:2017:i:01:n:s2010139216500154 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    13. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    14. Andrade, Sandro C. & Barrett, W. Brian, 2011. "Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1170-1178, May.
    15. Ethan Watson & Mary C. Funck, 2012. "A cloudy day in the market: short selling behavioural bias or trading strategy," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 238-255, June.
    16. Ching-Ping Wang & Hung-Hsi Huang & Yong-Wei Chen, 2012. "Investor SAD Sentiment and Stock Returns in Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 40-57, July.
    17. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    18. repec:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:169-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tefft, Nathan, 2012. "Mental health and employment: The SAD story," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 242-255.
    20. Lect. Aurora Murgea Ph. D, 2010. "Classical Lassical And Behavioural Finance In Investor Decision," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(38), pages 1-12, May.
    21. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Vicki L. Bogan & Angela R. Fertig, 2013. "Portfolio Choice and Mental Health," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 955-992.
    23. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2012. "The week-of-the-year effect: Evidence from around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1963-1974.
    24. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2009. "Is it the weather? Comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 578-582, March.

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